3 Reasons to Sell Your Home this Spring

Many sellers are still hesitant about putting their house up for sale. Where are prices headed? Where are interest rates headed? These are all valid questions. However, there are several reasons to sell your home sooner rather than later. Here are three of those reasons.

1. Demand is about to skyrocket

Most people realize that the housing market is hottest from April through June. The most serious buyers are well aware of this and, for that reason, come out in early spring in order to beat the heavy competition. We also have a pent-up demand as many buyers pushed off their home search this winter because of extreme weather. Sellers in markets where seasonal weather is never an issue must realize that buyers relocating to their region will increase dramatically this spring as these purchasers finally decide to escape the freezing temperatures of the winters in the north.

These buyers are ready, willing and able to buy…and are in the market right now!

2. There Is Less Competition – For Now

Housing supply always grows from the spring through the early summer. Also, there has been a growing desire for many homeowners to move as they were unable to sell over the last few years because of a negative equity situation. Homeowners have seen a return to positive equity as prices increased over the last eighteen months. Many of these homes will be coming to the market in the near future.

The choices buyers have will continue to increase over the next few months. Don’t wait until all the other potential sellers in your market put their homes up for sale.

3. There Will Never Be a Better Time to Move-Up

If you are moving up to a larger, more expensive home, consider doing it now. Prices are projected to appreciate by approximately 4% this year and 8% by the end of 2015. If you are moving to a higher priced home, it will wind-up costing you more in raw dollars (both in down payment and mortgage payment) if you wait. You can also lock-in your 30 year housing expense with an interest rate at about 4.5% right now. Freddie Mac projects rates to be 5.1% by this time next year and 5.7% by the fourth quarter of 2015.

Moving up to a new home will be less expensive this spring than later this year or next year.

2013 MLS Annual Review

Brokers report nearly $25.5 billion in 2013 sales

Members of Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported 75,517 closed sales during 2013, surpassing the 2012 volume by around 11,000 transactions for an increase of nearly 17 percent. Measured by dollars, last year’s sales of single family homes and condominiums were valued at nearly $25.5 billion to outgain the previous year by more than $5.5 billion (up 27.4 percent).

Last year’s completed sales included 65,122 single family homes and 10,395 condominiums, as tallied by nearly 21,000 real estate brokers in the 21 counties that make up the Northwest MLS service area.  The total units and dollar volume are the best since 2007 when members registered 82,197 sales valued at $32.3 billion.

The area-wide median price for last year’s sales was $270,000, improving on the previous year’s figure of $245,000 (up 10.2 percent). A comparison by county shows median sales prices ranged from $118,750 in Pacific County to $372,000 in King County.

Prices for single family homes (excluding condominiums) also rose 10.2 percent from 2012, increasing from $255,000 to $281,000. Condo prices jumped 15.3 percent, rising from the 2012 figure of $175,200 to last year’s median price of $202,000.

By one measure, buyers who shopped during 2013 had a bigger selection as members added more than 104,000 listings to inventory during the year. That was an improvement over 2012 when members added 91,359 new listings. However, brisk sales meant the total number of active listings, which averaged 21,946 during 2013, fell below the previous year’s average of 24,604.

During 2013, the area-wide supply, as measured by months of inventory, ranged from a low of 1.95 in March to 3.68 in December. Industry watchers tend to use a 4-to-6 month range as an indicator of a balanced market, favoring neither buyers nor sellers. Supply tended to be tightest in King and Snohomish counties.

Further evidence of a housing recovery is reflected in high-end sales. Northwest MLS members reported 1,621 sales of single family homes priced at $1 million or more, up 45.2 percent from the 2012 total of 1,116 such sales. Condos priced at $1 million and up accounted for another 137 sales, about the same number as 2012 (138 sales).

The highest-priced single family home that sold during 2013 by a member of Northwest MLS was a property in Medina that fetched $9.75 million. A penthouse in downtown Seattle that sold for $6.2 million topped the condo list.

Among other highlights in its annual compilation of statistics, Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported:

• Single family homes accounted for 86 percent of last year’s residential sales.
• Nearly half (49 percent) of last year’s single family home sales were 3-bedroom      homes. More than three-fourths (77 percent) of condos that sold had 2      bedrooms.
• The median price for a 3-bedroom home that sold in 2013 was $250,000. A      comparison by county shows the median price for this size home ranged from      $128,000 in Pacific County to $450,000 in San Juan County.
• Of the condo sales, about two-thirds (64.1 percent) were located in King      County. Within that county, the Eastside edged out Seattle for the largest share (39.7 percent versus 37 percent).
• Last year’s sales included 8,298 newly built single family homes that sold for a median price of $325,000, and 846 condos that sold for a median price of      $350,214.
• A 10-year comparison of median prices of single family homes shows prices      peaked in most counties in 2007. In 2013, Grant County selling prices returned to 2007 levels, Okanogan prices were at 96.7 percent of 2007 prices, and King County prices were at 91.2 percent of 2007 prices. Other counties have not yet reached those levels, but most are experiencing steady gains.
• Prices vary widely among school districts. An analysis of some of the largest      districts in the MLS market area shows single family homes on Mercer Island have the highest prices, followed by homes in the Bellevue, Issaquah, Lake Washington and Bainbridge school districts.

Number of houses on market in 3-county area edging back up

The number of homes for sale in the first half of 2014 will likely be higher, following one of the worst years in recent history

Here’s the good news: The number of homes for sale in the first half of 2014 will likely be higher, following one of the worst years in recent memory for inventory.

Real-estate analysts track the months’ supply of homes for sale by comparing the number of active listings with the number of pending sales — homes under contracts that have not yet closed. A balanced market is generally one with a four- to six-month supply of homes for sale.

This past March, the supply in all three counties hit its lowest level in at least a decade: one month in King, less than a month in Snohomish and 1.7 months in Pierce, according to data from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

Veteran real-estate agents said they’ve never seen anything like it.

“The first four months of this year were the best time to be a seller over the past decade,” said Ann Pierson, a John L. Scott broker in Bellevue. “Literally if anything was on the market it was going to sell.”

In Bellevue’s Somerset neighborhood, one of the region’s most sought-after for the local schools, Pierson said last March she’d have about 200 buyers come through on the first weekend she showed a house, with as many as eight bidders.

Early 2013 was the exact opposite of late 2008, which was a buyers’ market: The supply of homes and condominiums peaked at 10 months in King County and 11.3 months in Snohomish County, according to the MLS. Pierce County had an 11-month supply.

Since March’s record low, the supply of homes for sale in the Seattle metro area has steadily climbed.

Not coincidentally, the rate of bidding wars has plunged, according to data from Seattle-based Redfin, an online real-estate brokerage.

In November, about 43 percent of offers submitted by Redfin agents for home shoppers faced competition, down from 75 percent in April.

For the next five years, inventory should gradually grow, Pierson said.

The rebound in home prices has lifted thousands of homeowners out of negative equity, freeing them to sell their houses and wipe out mortgage debt. In King County, one of out six homes with a mortgage was in negative equity at the end of September, down from a peak of one in three in March 2012, according to Seattle-based Zillow, the online real-estate marketplace.

Also, new-home construction is edging back up. Through October, there were 7,560 permits for new single-family homes in the Seattle metro area. That’s up 9 percent from last year, though still well below the roughly 16,000 single-family units added annually before the housing bubble burst.

~by Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Time

It’s the most wonderful time of the year… to sell a house? There’s always that question whether or not you should keep your house on the market for the holidays. You figure that potential home buyers will be preoccupied with buying gifts, planning parties, cooking meals, and visiting relatives; the last thing on their mind is searching for and purchasing a new home, right? For this reason, many home sellers choose to temporarily remove their home from listing, then wait until the new year to relist.

Before you hold off on listing your home until the new year, consider the benefits of listing your home for sale during the holidays, such as:

• Many home sellers either hold off from selling or take a break from selling during the holidays. Inevitably, the amount of listings on the market drop down, which means less competition for your home. With less competition, you could potentially sell your home faster, for more money. Once the market comes back up in the spring time, a lot of sellers will list their homes all at once for lower prices, which may drive the whole market down.

• Home buyers are generally the most motivated during the holiday season, greatly aiding sellers. Although there will be less buyers looking at homes this time of year, the buyers who do look are more serious about closing. “While the traffic is down, the buyers who are out there — when it’s soggy and dark at 4:45 p.m. — they’re not just poking around for the fun of it,” said Billy Grippo, a broker for Windermere Cronin and Caplan Realty Group. “They’re wanting to buy a house.”

• Looking back on statistics, interest rates tend to drop the most at the end of the year. “If we look historically at interest rates, cyclically we’ve seen drops every December through January,” says Rich Hayden, senior loan officer for Home First Mortgage Corp. “While rates are now at all-time lows, we could dip even lower,” he says. Tyler agrees, “Interest rates have to come up sometime but it won’t be during the holidays.”

• Many people purposely choose to purchase a home before the new year to receive a tax write off. Home buyers who close before the end of the year could be eligible for tax credits, such as deductions for home mortgage interest, real estate taxes, and PMI premiums.

• Large companies normally transfer employees in January. Those relocating usually need to buy a house right away and simply cannot wait.

• In the winter months, homes typically show better. The decorations, smell of cookies baking, and a roaring fireplace all give your home a “warm and cozy” feeling. Just make sure you don’t cover up your homes best features with too much holiday decor. Stick to tasteful and simple decorations and proper staging techniques for the holidays.

• A lot of companies give their employees time off work for the holiday season, which means potential buyers have more time for showings.

• While all the malls and retail stores may be packed, Lenders and title companies aren’t as busy and can process loans faster. “November and December are historically slower months in the mortgage business, so things get done faster,” says Brad Walbrun, a mortgage consultant for A and N Mortgage Services.

• Most become so consumed in buying gifts for their friends and family, that they completely overlook all the holiday sales and specials on home appliances and hardware. Remodeling, decorating, appliance installation and other home services become more available and at less of a premium.

• Late spring and summer are usually thought of as the best times to put a home on the market because buyer demand builds steadily through spring. If you sell your home in the winter, you’ll have your pick of tons of houses for sale in the spring time.

Just because it’s cold outside doesn’t mean the whole housing market comes to a freeze during the holidays!

~showingsuite.com

King Co median price up 15% over year ago

The pattern was repeated in Snohomish and Pierce counties: Median prices were $286,250 in  Snohomish and $222,000 in Pierce, with double-digit appreciation over the year, according to the  Multiple Listing Service.

The median price of single-family homes sold in King County last month rose to $426,000, a 15 percent increase over the year.

After a remarkable frenzy of home buying in early summer sent the median price to $434,000 in July, the highest level in five years, October’s activity showed a more balanced market, with more inventory for sale.

Buyers closed on 2,187 homes, 10 percent more than in the previous October, the Northwest Multiple Listing Service (MLS) reported Tuesday.

While extremely tight inventory drove bidding wars in spring, October was the first time this year that inventory of single family homes was higher than a year earlier. In King County, there were 4,575 single family homes listed, 6 percent more than a year earlier. In the condominium market, there were 1,133 units listed, 8 percent more than a year ago.

The Eastside, as usual, had the highest median price in King County: It was $575,377, up 14 percent from a year ago. Southwest King County had the lowest median price at $240,000, about 7 percent higher over the year.

The median price was $286,250 in Snohomish County and $222,000 in Pierce County, with double-digit appreciation over the year, according to the MLS.

Pending sales slipped to 2,579, down almost 4 percent from a year earlier, perhaps related to the federal government’s partial shutdown from Oct. 1-16. Pending sales are where the shutdown’s impact would have shown up, but it’s hard to tease that out from other possible causes, said Glenn Crellin, associate director of research at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington.

“I’m very encouraged by the fact that listings are increasing gradually,” he said. Regionally, inventory remains tight: King, Snohomish and Pierce counties all have less than three months’ supply, the MLS reported.

A balanced market generally has enough supply for four to six months. “It still looks like a potential housing shortage in Puget Sound come 2015 if building doesn’t increase,” Dick Beeson, principal managing broker for RE/MAX Professionals in Tacoma, said in a statement. Mike Gain, president and CEO of Prudential Northwest Realty Associates, said the shutdown “definitely hurt consumer  confidence” and caused would-be buyers to pause.

~Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Times

Sept. sales down, but prices up

After hitting the highest level in nearly four years, existing-home sales declined in September, but limited inventory conditions continued to pressure home prices in much of the country, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, declined 1.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.29 million in September from a downwardly revised 5.39 million in August, but are 10.7 percent above the 4.78 million-unit pace in September 2012. Sales have remained above year-ago levels for the past 27 months.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said a decline was expected. “Affordability has fallen to a five-year low as home price increases easily outpaced income growth,” he said. “Expected rising mortgage interest rates will further lower affordability in upcoming months. Next month we may see some delays associated with the government shutdown.”

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage rose to 4.49 percent in September from 4.46 percent in August, and is the highest since July 2011 when it was 4.55 percent; the rate was 3.47 percent in September 2012. The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $199,200 in September, up 11.7 percent from September 2012. This is the 10th consecutive month of double-digit year-over-year increases.

Distressed homes – foreclosures and short sales – accounted for 14 percent of September sales, up from 12 percent in August, which was the lowest share since monthly tracking began in October 2008; they were 24 percent in September 2012. Lower levels in the share of distressed sales account for some of the growth in median price. Nine percent of September sales were foreclosures, and 5 percent were short sales. Foreclosures sold for an average discount of 16 percent below market value in September, while short sales were discounted 12 percent. Data from realtor.com®, NAR’s listing site, show some of the strongest increases in listing price from a year ago are in the Detroit area, up 44.6 percent; Las Vegas, up 30.7 percent; and Sacramento, up 28.9 percent.

Total housing inventory at the end of September was unchanged at 2.21 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 5.0-month supply at the current sales pace, compared with a 4.9-month supply in August. Unsold inventory is 1.8 percent above a year ago, when there was a 5.4-month supply.

NAR President Gary Thomas said there are far-ranging consequences from the repeating stalemates in Washington. “Just one impact of the recent government shutdown – delays in tax transcripts needed for approval of mortgage loans – put a monkey wrench in the transaction process and could negatively impact sales closings in next month’s report,” he said.

Thomas said flood insurance also is a concern. “Realtors® report that approximately 10 percent of transactions in September were located in flood zones, and that nearly one out of 10 of those transactions were delayed or canceled due to concerns over rising insurance rates.” Notably higher flood insurance rates went into effect on October 1, and could impact future sales in flood zones.

The median time on market for all homes was 50 days in September, up from 43 days in August, but much faster than the 70 days on market in September 2012. Short sales were on the market for a median of 93 days, while foreclosures typically sold in 43 days, and non-distressed homes took 49 days. Thirty-nine percent of homes sold in September were on the market for less than a month.

First-time buyers accounted for 28 percent of purchases in September, unchanged from August, but down from 32 percent in September 2012. All-cash sales comprised 33 percent of transactions in September, up from 32 percent in August, and 28 percent in September 2012. Individual investors, who account for many cash sales, purchased 19 percent of homes in September, up from 17 percent in August, and 18 percent in September 2012. Last month, 74 percent of investors paid cash.

Single-family home sales slipped 1.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.68 million in September from 4.75 million in August, but are 10.9 percent above the 4.22 million-unit pace in September 2012. The median existing single-family home price was $199,300 in September, which is 11.4 percent higher than a year ago. Existing condominium and co-op sales fell 4.7 percent to an annual rate of 610,000 units in September from 640,000 in August, but are 8.9 percent above the 560,000-unit level a year ago. The median existing condo price was $198,600 in September, up 14.2 percent from September 2012.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast declined 2.8 percent to an annual rate of 690,000 in September, but are 15.0 percent above September 2012. The median price in the Northeast was $240,900, up 2.3 percent from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest fell 5.3 percent in September to a pace of 1.25 million, but are 12.6 percent higher than a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $158,400, which is 9.0 percent above September 2012.

In the South, existing-home sales declined 1.4 percent to an annual level of 2.10 million in September, but are 9.9 percent above September 2012. The median price in the South was $171,600, up 13.9 percent from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the West rose 1.6 percent to a pace of 1.25 million in September, and are 7.8 percent higher than a year ago. With ongoing inventory restrictions, the median price in the West rose to $286,300, which is 16.8 percent above September 2012.

~RIS Media

Seattle Market Review; Seattle Inventory

Seattle Market Review – MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
          By Steve Fuller, Seattle Times

Labor Market: Seattle sets national example for job growth
Retail Market: Southcenter adds retailers
Regional Development: Construction of $2.3 billion Bellevue project begins
Travel: Alaska Airlines says it’s the most fuel-efficient airline
Economy: Seattle-area inflation is lower than national rate
Real Estate Market: Seattle home prices up 11.8 percent over year

Area Stores Opening
• Altstadt to open in Pioneer Square (Seattle)
• Aragona to open in October (Seattle)
• Barnacle to open soon (Seattle)
• Brimmer & Heeltap to open soon (Seattle)
• Hollywood Tavern to open in Woodinville
• La Bodega pop-up to open permanent home (Seattle)
• Le Petit Cochon to open in Freemont (Seattle)
• Liam’s to open in U-Village (Seattle)
• Loulay to open soon near 6th and Union (Seattle)
• Miller’s Guild to open in Hotel Max before the holidays (Seattle)
• Roux to open in Fremont (Seattle)
• The Container store coming to Southcenter (Tukwila)
• JCrew coming to Southcenter (Tukwila)
• Aveda coming to Southcenter (Tukwila)
• Yankee Candle coming to Southcenter (Tukwila)
• Buffalo Wild Wings coming to Southcenter (Tukwila)
• The Joint Corp (chiropractic) opening the first of 23 Seattle area locations in Redmond
• Molly Moon’s headed to University Village this fall (Seattle)
• Ethan Stowell to open “mkt” in Seattle
• Cone and Steirner to open “corner market” on Capitol Hill (Seattle)

 Area Stores Moving/Renovation/other
• None

 Area Stores Closing
• Francine Seders Gallery to close after nearly 5 decades (Seattle)

Seattle ranks number 2 for overall wage growth among big U.S cities:
http://www.theatlanticcities.com/

Seattle ranked 5^th best tech startup city in US:
 http://www.entrepreneur.com/article/227829

SEATTLE-AREA HOME SUPPLY SLOWLY INCREASING 

        By Aubrey Cohen, Seattle PI

There were a few more homes for sale in the Seattle area last month than in July, although the situation remained tight.

Seattle had 1.6 months worth of homes for sale at the current sales pace in August, up from 1.5 months of inventory in
July. King County had 1.9 months of inventory, up from 1.7 months.

But both were down from more than two months of supply a year earlier and well below the four to six months generally
considered balanced between supply and demand.

“What these numbers tell us loud and clear is that buyer demand in the Puget Sound region is still incredibly strong,”
Windermere Real Estate President OB Jacobi said in a listing service news release.

The median price of a house that sold in August was $457,000 in Seattle and $430,000 countywide. That was up 11 percent
and 13.8 percent, respectively, from a year earlier, but down 1.7 percent and 0.9 percent from July.

The median condo price was $297,500 in Seattle and $255,000 countywide. That was up 19 percent in the city
and 31 percent in the county from a year earlier, and 5.5 percent and 10.4 percent, respectively, from July.

In the listing service news release, Prudential Northwest Realty Associates President and CEO Mike Gain said rising prices
and interest rates are not deterring sales because “homes are still more affordable than they have been in decades.”

 

Demand for Puget Sound area homes “still incredibly strong,” but brokers report frenzy is easing in some neighborhoods

NWMLS, Kirkland, WA – . Northwest Multiple Listing Service figures for August show brisk sales, escalating prices and some improvement in inventory, prompting one MLS director to declare, “What these numbers tell us loud and clear is that buyer demand in the Puget Sound region is still incredibly strong.”

In making that comment, OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate, noted the housing market tends to experience some slowing during August, but rising inventory levels and sustained buyer demand fueled “higher than expected home sales and another month of strong appreciation.”

The latest figures from Northwest MLS show pending sales (mutually accepted offers) during August increased 8.7 percent from a year ago. Brokers in the 21 counties served by the MLS reported 9,065 pending sales system-wide. That’s a drop of 500 units from July, but an increase of 727 transactions compared to a year ago (August 2012). In the four-county Puget Sound region (King, Kitsap, Pierce, and Snohomish), the total of 6,916 pending sales was the highest volume for August since 2006 when members notched 7,692 sales.

Prices also reflected an upward trajectory. The area-wide median price for last month’s completed sales of single family homes and condominiums was $283,000, which compares to the year ago figure of $250,000 for a gain of 13.2 percent. Only two other months this year have had higher year-over-year increases: March (14.9 percent) and May (13.4 percent). Since January, prices have jumped 18.3 percent.

Prices on single family homes (excluding condos) that sold during August increased from $263,495 to $294,000 for a gain of 11.6 percent.

An analysis by Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate, shows King County median prices for August ($392,500, including single family homes and condos) are at 92.4 percent of the peak price of $425,000, set in July 2007. He credits a surge in sales activity and a shortage of homes for sale as primary drivers of spiking prices during the past two years.

“We have seen 22 straight months of strong-surge sales activity,” Scott reported. “Job growth, pent up demand by local home buyers, residential investors, incoming transferees, a strong local economy and historically low interest rates have led the way during this recovery phase of the residential housing market,” Scott stated.

Inventory is showing signs of stabilizing in many Western Washington areas, with members adding nearly 1,800 more new listings to the MLS database during August compared to the same month a year ago. With that 21 percent increase in new listings, the total number of active listings at month end (26,433) was almost on par with a year ago when the selection encompassed 26,506 homes for sale.

Dick Beeson, the principal managing broker of RE/MAX Professionals in Tacoma, noted some key indicators are trending lower or slower as the market adjusts to a “new normal.” The former chair of Northwest MLS also said it would be hard to continue the near record-setting pace of the last few months.

“While the overall market remains vibrant and active, we don’t appear to have the frantic ‘must have this home because there may not be another’ mentality among buyers,” Beeson reported, adding, “The increase in both inventory — a near return to 2012 levels — and the sharp increase in interest rates have been the most influential factors in an end-of-the-summer market adjustment.”

Another past chairman of Northwest MLS, Mike Gain, said inventory shortages are still common in many parts of King County. MLS figures show of 22 of the 29 map areas it tracks in King County had fewer listings at the end of August than at the same time a year ago.

Measured by months of supply, King County, with only 1.7 months of supply, is well below the 4-to-6-month level that many analysts use as an indicator of healthy levels or a balanced market. The selection is also squeezed in Snohomish County, where there is 1.8 months of supply. System-wide, the figure is at 2.9 months.

Gain, the CEO and president of Prudential Northwest Realty Associates, said many industry-watchers predicted rising interest rates would slow down the market. “Well, it has not, because despite jumps in prices and interest rates, homes are still more affordable than they have been in decades.” He said buyers are on “heightened alert” because of the recent upward movement in interest rates. “We don’t expect interest rates to stay as low as they are today and prices in our area are expected to continue to rise. For anyone who is thinking of buying, now is the time,” he suggests.

Darin Stenvers, a director with Northwest MLS, called the current market “the strongest in four or five years,” with signs of stability that should continue into 2014. “If a buyer finds the home of their dreams, they should make their first offer their best offer or risk losing that home,” he stated.

The condominium market is rebounding in some areas, offering a good alternative for renters who are seeking good housing at affordable prices. Although the inventory is still below year-ago levels (down 4.8 percent), Stenvers said there is a good selection with great pricing options. Also, he pointed out buyers can purchase with a down payment that is in line with landlord demands for upfront rent and large deposits, and have a more affordable monthly payment.

Pending sales of condos area-wide rose about 6.3 percent during August. Closed sales jumped more than 17.4 percent, with prices surging 26.7 percent.

“We are definitely working our way nicely through this housing recovery, with all of the latest data showing strong year-over-year gains in prices and sales of both pending and closed transactions,” Gain commented. He also noted the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) reported the national median existing home price increased at an annual rate of 12.2 percent – the biggest yearly price increase since Q4 of 2005.

Seattle home prices up 11.8 percent over year

Thirteen of 20 cities nationally saw a slowdown in the pace of price increases.

Home prices in the Greater Seattle market increased in June 1.8 percent over the previous month and 11.8 percent over the past 12 months, according to the closely watched S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home-price index.

As of June, average U.S. home prices have returned to their spring 2004 levels, although the pace of the increase appeared to be slowing, officials said. The 20-city index posted a 2.2 percent monthly gain in June and was up 12.1 percent over the past 12 months.

“With interest rates rising to almost 4.6 percent, home buyers may be discouraged and sharp increases may be dampened,” said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

The Case-Shiller index figure for June represents a three-month moving average and includes resales of foreclosed homes by lenders.

While all 20 cities in the index posted monthly gains, 13 saw a slowdown in average price growth. Atlanta’s average home price grew 3.4 percent, the highest among the 20 cities. Las Vegas and San Francisco notched annual gains of more than 20 percent.

“Over the next year, home value appreciation rates will slow as investors exit the market, mortgage interest rates rise, negative equity falls, builders ramp up and more homes come on the market,” said Stan Humphries, chief economist at Seattle-based Zillow, in a statement.

Steady job gains and low mortgage rates have encouraged more Americans to buy homes. And even as demand has risen, a limited number of homes have been available for sale. The combination has led to sharp prices gains.

But mortgage rates have climbed more than a full percentage point since May. The increase has already slowed sales of new homes in July. And economists expect it could drag re-sales lower in August.

A slowdown from the strong price gains in recent months isn’t necessarily a bad thing, economists said. It may keep home prices from becoming unaffordable.

~ By Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Times

Time to Reality Check the Real Estate Market

OB Jacobi, President of Windermere Real Estate, provides a great overview of our current market:

Rarely does a day go by that I don’t get asked if this is a good time to buy and/or sell a home. Some people might think that my response is always an emphatic “YES!” because I work in real estate. But in truth, there is no right or wrong answer. Every person’s circumstances are unique, so in some cases the answer might be yes, but for others it might make more sense to wait. Allow me to explain.

The good news is that we’re finally coming out of the housing slump of the past five-plus years. Housing is a major driving factor of the U.S. economy, so regardless of whether or not one owns a home, a stronger housing market is good for everyone. For some would-be home sellers, this positive momentum, combined with a rise in home prices and buyer activity, is enough to compel them to list their home. And right now the statistics appear to be on their side.

According to the most recent findings from the National Association of REALTORS®, total housing inventory has fallen for the past several months, settling at just under two million existing homes on the market that are available to buyers. This represents about a four-month-supply of homes throughout the U.S. This is the lowest housing supply the nation has seen since May of 2005 – during the peak of the housing boom.

“Months supply” basically means that if existing homes were to continue selling at the current rate, the inventory of homes would be sold by that many months. A “normal” market usually has around six months of supply; therefore lower numbers mean a shortage of inventory. If demand is greater than supply, this often leads to competition amongst buyers – and rising prices – as we’ve seen in many markets throughout the Western U.S.

Here are the current inventory levels in key markets along the West Coast, all of which fall below six months of supply and report strong competition among buyers.
• Seattle: 1.4 months
• Portland: 4.2 months
• San Francisco: 1.8 months
• Las Vegas: 3.8 months
• Palm Springs: 2.5 months

The following graph demonstrates the downward trend in the overall U.S. month’s supply of homes which is currently at about 4.4 months:

So what does this mean for buyers and sellers? It means as long as inventory levels remain low, competition amongst buyers will remain high, and home prices should continue to steadily rise – albeit at a healthy rate – not like what we saw during the housing boom. As evidence of this, in the recent Home Price Expectation Survey, 105 leading housing analysts called for a 3.1 percent increase in home values by the end of 2013. And in a recent report by the National Association of REALTORS®, median home prices last quarter showed the strongest year-over-year increase in seven years.

Another thing that buyers and sellers need to keep their eye on is interest rates and their impact on affordability.

Interest rates have been at such historical lows for so long that it’s easy to take them for granted. But the truth is that several lending institutions, including Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association, project that interest rates will rise from 3.4 to 4.4 percent by the end of 2013. A full point increase can have a significant impact on the amount of your mortgage over the long term.

I’ll explain:

Assuming a 30-year-mortgage at a 3.4 percent interest rate, a home valued at $360,000 in today’s market would have a monthly payment of $1,596.53. If prices rise by 3.1 percent and interest rates rise to 4.4 percent, as both have been predicted to do in the coming year, that same home would be worth $371,160 and have a monthly payment of $1,858.62 (see chart below). This is a difference of $262.09 per month – $3,145.08 annually – and $94,352.40 over the life of the loan. That’s not chump change.

With these types of projections, one might wonder why there isn’t a flood of homes coming on the market. The biggest concern I hear from many would-be sellers is that they’re going to lose money because their home is worth less today than when they bought it. A valid concern, to be sure, but not necessarily the case for many folks. Remember, you’re buying and selling in the same market conditions, so if your home has lost value in recent years, it is highly likely that the next home you buy has as well.

I recently spoke to a friend of mine who wanted to sell but was afraid of losing money. He bought his Seattle-area home back in 2002 for $275,000. Over the next five years the market boomed and by 2007 his home was worth about $430,000. During that time, homes in many areas around Seattle appreciated by over 55 percent. Then the housing market crashed – and with it so did home prices. In my friend’s mind he lost $155,000 and now he thinks he should wait to sell until he can gain all that loss back.

Today, my friend’s home is worth about $327,000 – a gain of $52,000 over what he paid in 2002. If experts are right about an annual gain of three percent in the coming years, he will have to wait 10 years before his home is worth what it was during the peak of the market in 2007. My advice to him? If it’s the right time to move and you can afford to do it, go for it, but don’t base your decision on numbers that were the result of an artificially inflated market.

It goes without saying that nobody wants to sell at the bottom of the market, yet at the same time, everybody wants to buy at the bottom. Obviously these two scenarios can’t exist at the same time, but I hope the information in this blog shows there are definitely opportunities to be had by both buyers and sellers that are worth considering.