Housing Market Righting Itself as Buyers, Brokers Get Creative

Housing around Western Washington is on an upward trajectory, but inadequate inventory “in the right prices and locations” makes for a “very difficult market for purchasers and brokers,” according to an executive with one multi-office real estate company.

New figures from Northwest Multiple Listing Service show inventory increased in May compared to a year ago, but brokers say competition is keen. “Multiple offers and escalation clauses occur on a regular basis for properties that are extremely well priced and in great condition,” reports Dick Beeson, principal managing broker at RE/MAX Professionals in Tacoma.

Mike Gain, a former chairman of the Northwest MLS board of directors, also commented on the bidding wars. “We are experiencing more multiple offers than I have experienced in my 35 years of practicing real estate in this marketplace,” stated Gain, the president and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Northwest Real Estate. “This is a very difficult market for purchasers, our agents and brokers. If we had inventory to handle the demand our pending and sold numbers would be greatly increased,” he believes, adding, “We desperately need good quality inventory.”

Last month’s pending sales topped the 10,000 mark for the first time in twelve months. The number of mutually accepted offers totaled 10,373, outgaining a year ago by 328 transactions for an increase of almost 3.3 percent. Last month’s total was the highest volume of pending sales since June 2006 when brokers tallied 10,448 transactions.

With demand outpacing supply in many parts of the region, brokers are noticing more creativity among competing parties. “Offer review deadlines have become pretty commonplace in this market, as have pre-inspections,” said OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate. He said some agents and buyers are getting even more aggressive by submitting their offer prior to the deadline.

Jacobi said there’s also an increase in the number of cash buyers, and buyers willing to waive their financing contingency, “making it even more difficult for the vast majority who don’t have this option.” With ongoing competition likely to continue, Jacobi expects agents and buyers to be “increasingly creative until the market becomes more balanced, which probably isn’t going to happen any time soon.”

MLS figures show months of inventory slipped to 3.33 from April’s figure of 3.46. In King County, supply stayed about even with April (1.78 months of inventory in May versus l.74 months in April).  Snohomish slipped from 2.47 months to 2.37. Four to six months is considered to be a balanced market.

Fewer sales closed last month compared to a year ago (down 2.2 percent), but prices increased. Compared to April, the number of completed sales in May jumped by 997 transactions for a gain of 16.1 percent. Brokers reported 7,187 closed sales of single family homes and condominiums last month with a median selling price of $285,000. That sales price reflects a 3.6 percent increase from the year-ago figure of $275,000.

For single family homes (excluding condos) the area-wide price rose 4.2 percent, increasing from $285,000 to $297,000. Condo prices jumped nearly 15% from the year-ago price of $200,000 to last month’s price of $229,900.

Brokers added 12,605 new listings to inventory during May, about 10 percent more than a year ago. At month end, the selection across the 21 counties served by Northwest MLS included 23,917 active listings. That total reflects a 9 percent increase from twelve months ago when buyers could choose from 21,943 homes and condominiums.

In several counties served by Northwest MLS distressed properties make up about 20 percent of the activity, according to an analysis by Beeson. His figures show one of every five homes that sold in Pierce, Thurston, Kitsap and Cowlitz counties was distressed, while in King County such properties accounted for only around 10 percent of the sales.

Beeson, a board member at Northwest MLS, expects distressed properties will continue to be an integral part of the market. As median prices continue to rise around Puget Sound, he believes the inventory of short sales will be reduced.

“The inventory of bank owned properties holds steady at twice the number of short sales,” Beeson reported, adding, “This probably will not change in the foreseeable future as banks have warehoused much of their ‘shadow inventory’ and are slowly bringing it on the market so as not to glut the market, and to help keep pricing levels up, which benefits them as well.”

Another MLS director, George Moorhead, characterized the market as “sluggish” in areas. Buyers are about “45 days later to the starting line” compared to patterns of the past three years. “Some areas are still doing extremely well and still seeing multiple offers, but not on the whole,” observed Moorhead, the managing broker at Bentley Properties in Bothell. Overall, he believes “the market is righting itself slowly and becoming healthy and sustainable.”

Snohomish anomaly
Inventory in Snohomish County jumped 43 percent compared to a year ago. Asked about the surge, Moorhead attributed much of it to an influx of new construction. The MLS database shows 406 of 2,206 listings of single family homes are classified as new construction. That’s about twice the number from a year ago. “The price points are some of the best in the market areas for size, style and overall location,” Moorhead stated.

Rosy outlook
Despite inventory shortages, Northwest MLS brokers were mostly upbeat about short-term activity:

  • “Locally, the summer selling season can be the busiest time of the year. This year with the lack of inventory it is probably the best market sellers will ever experience,” suggested Mike Gain.
  • “We anticipate the market remaining at modest levels of growth [in Snohomish County] and inventory levels continuing in a healthy range of seven to eight months instead of two to three months.”  — George Moorhead
  • “Home buyers received a summer gift, just in time for the home buying season: interest rates have come down one third of a point from a month ago.” – J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO, John L. Scott Real Estate.
  • “In almost every county, inventory increases since last year have brought a sigh of relief from many buyers . . . If interest rates continue to hold under 5 percent and the unemployment picture continues to improve or remain the same, we should see a moderate to strong market throughout the balance of 2014.” – Dick Beeson. Wilson urged sellers to make sure their home is exposed “to as many real estate brokers from as many real estate firms as possible to ensure all buyers in your area and price point have a chance to make an offer on your home.”~NW Multiple Listing Service
  • Buyers also need to be prepared, Wilson suggested. In addition to being fully approved for financing a mortgage before making an offer, buyers need to be mindful that their offer “may not be the only one being tendered to a seller” and be poised to respond.
  • MLS spokespeople encouraged potential sellers to consider listing now. “Now is a great time for move up sellers/buyers who can sell their homes quickly today and secure another at today’s prices and today’s low interest rates,” Gain suggested. He also noted the majority of homeowners have experienced significant gains in their equity over the past two years. “Sellers who took their homes off the market in the down market can now get the prices they were wanting when they made their decisions to rent them. The prices are back and the homes will sell,” he emphasized.

~NW Multiple Listing Service

Seattle prices higher ~ Severe inventory shortage

Severe inventory shortage sends Seattle-area housing prices higher

The median price of houses and condos that sold last month in King County was 8 percent higher than in March 2013, a new report states.

Homeowners, if you’re thinking about selling, real estate agents have a message for you: Get off the dime already.

A report from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service on Thursday said housing prices in the metro Puget Sound area rose in March compared with a year ago. The main reason is an inventory shortage.

The listing service said that in King County, there’s only a 1.8-month supply of houses and condos for sale. Industry analysts say a four- to six-month supply is needed for a balanced market.

The shortage is less acute in other areas, but supply is still tight. For single-family houses, Snohomish County has a 2.3-month supply, while Pierce and Kitsap counties’ supplies are around 3.5 and 4.5 months, respectively.

Lack of inventory has sent housing prices higher. Compared with March 2013, the median price of condos and houses that sold last month was up 8 percent to $378,000 in King County, and up 9.3 percent to $295,000 in Snohomish County. In Pierce, prices rose 11.5 percent to $222,950. The median price fell 2.4 percent to $225,000 in Kitsap.

In Snohomish County, condos are especially hard to come by. The county has a supply of only 1.8 months. As a result, the median sale price last month was $193,500 — 29.4 percent higher than in March 2013.

If you’re looking for a place where there’s plenty of inventory, head to Ferry County. There, in northeastern Washington, you’ll find a 50-month supply of houses, though there’s hardly any demand. Only one house sold last month, and the price was $82,500, according to the multiple listing service.

                                                                    ~Marc Stiles, Puget Sound Business Journal

 

Moving-Up? Do it NOW not Later

A recent study revealed that the number of existing home owners planning to buy a home this year is about to increase dramatically. Some are moving up, some are downsizing and others are making a lateral move. Another study shows that over 75% of these buyers will, in fact, be in that first category: a move-up buyer. We want to address this group of buyers in today’s blog post.

There is no way for us to predict the future but we can look at what happened over the last year. Let’s look at buyers that considered moving up last year but decided to wait instead.

Assume they had a home worth $300,000 and were looking at a home for $400,000 (putting 10% down they would get a mortgage of $360,000). By waiting, their house appreciated by 13.8% over the last year (national average based on the Case Shiller Pricing Index). Their home would now be worth $341,400. But, the $400,000 home would now be worth $455,200 (requiring a mortgage of $409,680).

Here is a table showing what the additional monthly cost would be incurred by waiting:

    table                   

Prices are projected to appreciate by over 4% and interest rates are also expected to rise by as much as another full percentage point. If your family plans to move-up to a nicer or bigger home this year, it may make sense to move now rather than later.

~KCM Blog

 

2013 MLS Annual Review

Brokers report nearly $25.5 billion in 2013 sales

Members of Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported 75,517 closed sales during 2013, surpassing the 2012 volume by around 11,000 transactions for an increase of nearly 17 percent. Measured by dollars, last year’s sales of single family homes and condominiums were valued at nearly $25.5 billion to outgain the previous year by more than $5.5 billion (up 27.4 percent).

Last year’s completed sales included 65,122 single family homes and 10,395 condominiums, as tallied by nearly 21,000 real estate brokers in the 21 counties that make up the Northwest MLS service area.  The total units and dollar volume are the best since 2007 when members registered 82,197 sales valued at $32.3 billion.

The area-wide median price for last year’s sales was $270,000, improving on the previous year’s figure of $245,000 (up 10.2 percent). A comparison by county shows median sales prices ranged from $118,750 in Pacific County to $372,000 in King County.

Prices for single family homes (excluding condominiums) also rose 10.2 percent from 2012, increasing from $255,000 to $281,000. Condo prices jumped 15.3 percent, rising from the 2012 figure of $175,200 to last year’s median price of $202,000.

By one measure, buyers who shopped during 2013 had a bigger selection as members added more than 104,000 listings to inventory during the year. That was an improvement over 2012 when members added 91,359 new listings. However, brisk sales meant the total number of active listings, which averaged 21,946 during 2013, fell below the previous year’s average of 24,604.

During 2013, the area-wide supply, as measured by months of inventory, ranged from a low of 1.95 in March to 3.68 in December. Industry watchers tend to use a 4-to-6 month range as an indicator of a balanced market, favoring neither buyers nor sellers. Supply tended to be tightest in King and Snohomish counties.

Further evidence of a housing recovery is reflected in high-end sales. Northwest MLS members reported 1,621 sales of single family homes priced at $1 million or more, up 45.2 percent from the 2012 total of 1,116 such sales. Condos priced at $1 million and up accounted for another 137 sales, about the same number as 2012 (138 sales).

The highest-priced single family home that sold during 2013 by a member of Northwest MLS was a property in Medina that fetched $9.75 million. A penthouse in downtown Seattle that sold for $6.2 million topped the condo list.

Among other highlights in its annual compilation of statistics, Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported:

  • Single family homes accounted for 86 percent of last year’s residential sales.
  • Nearly half (49 percent) of last year’s single family home sales were 3-bedroom      homes. More than three-fourths (77 percent) of condos that sold had 2      bedrooms.
  • The median price for a 3-bedroom home that sold in 2013 was $250,000. A      comparison by county shows the median price for this size home ranged from      $128,000 in Pacific County to $450,000 in San Juan County.
  • Of the condo sales, about two-thirds (64.1 percent) were located in King      County. Within that county, the Eastside edged out Seattle for the largest share (39.7 percent versus 37 percent).
  • Last year’s sales included 8,298 newly built single family homes that sold for a median price of $325,000, and 846 condos that sold for a median price of      $350,214.
  • A 10-year comparison of median prices of single family homes shows prices      peaked in most counties in 2007. In 2013, Grant County selling prices returned to 2007 levels, Okanogan prices were at 96.7 percent of 2007 prices, and King County prices were at 91.2 percent of 2007 prices. Other counties have not yet reached those levels, but most are experiencing steady gains.
  • Prices vary widely among school districts. An analysis of some of the largest      districts in the MLS market area shows single family homes on Mercer Island have the highest prices, followed by homes in the Bellevue, Issaquah, Lake Washington and Bainbridge school districts.

Seattle Market Review

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

Labor Market: Hiring Demand in Seattle’s Silicon Forest Grows Tall
Retail Market: Haggen closing Top Food grocery stores in Kent, Auburn, Yakima
Regional Development: Major redevelopment planned for Rainier Square in downtown Seattle
Travel: Cruise Industry Publication Lauds Port of Seattle
Economy: Boeing’s economic impact on state estimated at $70B
Real Estate Market: Seattle home prices rise again

Area Stores Opening 
• New Seattle restaurant Westward takes a different approach
• Ballard Bridge Cafe opens for breakfast and lunch (Seattle)
• B & E Meats & Seafood hosts weekend-long grand opening (Newcastle)Area Stores Moving/Renovation/Other 
• Tommy Bahama moving headquarters to new Seattle buildingArea Stores Closing
• Haggen closing Top Food grocery stores in Kent, Auburn, Yakima

King County was tops for wage growth among nation’s 10 biggest: King County posted the highest wage growth among the nation’s   10 largest counties in the first quarter, data released Thursday by the   Bureau of Labor Statistics show. Average weekly wages in King rose 1.6 percent from a year earlier to $1,288 for the period ended   March 31, led by solid growth in the professional and business-services sector. King County, which ranks as the ninth-largest job market nationwide, was followed by Miami-Dade, Fla., where average weekly wages rose 0.9 percent to $912.
Source: The Seattle Times, September 26, 2013 http://seattletimes.com/html/businesstechnology/2021906474_kingemploymentxml.html
Best cheap U.S. restaurants? Seattle has five: Of the 80 U.S. restaurants listed in a new listing of cheap places to eat, five are in Seattle. Online restaurant guide Urbanspoon compiled the “Best Cheap Eats in the U.S.” list, which were restaurants that “received the most positive reviews from professional food critics, bloggers, and the Urbanspoon community of diners over the past 12 months.” According to Urbanspoon, the five best cheap restaurants in Seattle are:
1) Paseo — 4225 Fremont Ave. N
2) Bakery Nouveau — 4737 California Ave. SW;
3) Red Mill Burgers — 312 N 67th St.
4) Salumi — 309 3rd Ave. S;
5) Honey Hole Sandwiches — 703 E. Pike St.
Source: Puget Sound Business Journal, October 10, 2013 http://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/morning_call/2013/10/best-cheap-us-restaurants-seattle.html?ana=e_sea_rdup&s=newsletter&ed=2013-10-10
The Seattle area has second-highest salaries for software engineers: The Seattle area has the second-highest salaries for software engineers in the country, according to employer review site Glassdoor. This region’s engineers make an average of $103,196 per year, and three of the 25 highest-paying companies are based in the Puget Sound region, according to a report released Thursday by the Sausalito, Calif.-based employment salary and review site.
Source: Puget Sound Business Journal, October 17, 2013 http://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/blog/techflash/2013/10/seattle-has-second-highest-salaries.html?ana=RSS&s=article_search
Bellevue named one of the best places to live in the U.S.: Bellevue placed twelfth on a list of   the “Top 100 Best Places To Live,” a ranking of small to mid-sized U.S. cities compiled by the website Livability.com. The rankings, released on Wednesday, were developed for Livability.com by the University of Toronto’s Martin Prosperity Institute. Researchers studied 1,200 U.S. cities with populations of 20,000 to 350,000. The cities were evaluated in eight categories: economics, housing, amenities, infrastructure, demographics, social and civic capital, education and healthcare.
Source: The Seattle Times, October 16, 2013
http://blogs.seattletimes.com/fyi-guy/2013/10/16/bellevue-named-of-the-best-places-to-live-in-the-u-s/

To view the entire article by Steve Fuller, click here

 

King Co median price up 15% over year ago

The pattern was repeated in Snohomish and Pierce counties: Median prices were $286,250 in  Snohomish and $222,000 in Pierce, with double-digit appreciation over the year, according to the  Multiple Listing Service.

The median price of single-family homes sold in King County last month rose to $426,000, a 15 percent increase over the year.

After a remarkable frenzy of home buying in early summer sent the median price to $434,000 in July, the highest level in five years, October’s activity showed a more balanced market, with more inventory for sale.

Buyers closed on 2,187 homes, 10 percent more than in the previous October, the Northwest Multiple Listing Service (MLS) reported Tuesday.

While extremely tight inventory drove bidding wars in spring, October was the first time this year that inventory of single family homes was higher than a year earlier. In King County, there were 4,575 single family homes listed, 6 percent more than a year earlier. In the condominium market, there were 1,133 units listed, 8 percent more than a year ago.

The Eastside, as usual, had the highest median price in King County: It was $575,377, up 14 percent from a year ago. Southwest King County had the lowest median price at $240,000, about 7 percent higher over the year.

The median price was $286,250 in Snohomish County and $222,000 in Pierce County, with double-digit appreciation over the year, according to the MLS.

Pending sales slipped to 2,579, down almost 4 percent from a year earlier, perhaps related to the federal government’s partial shutdown from Oct. 1-16. Pending sales are where the shutdown’s impact would have shown up, but it’s hard to tease that out from other possible causes, said Glenn Crellin, associate director of research at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington.

“I’m very encouraged by the fact that listings are increasing gradually,” he said. Regionally, inventory remains tight: King, Snohomish and Pierce counties all have less than three months’ supply, the MLS reported.

A balanced market generally has enough supply for four to six months. “It still looks like a potential housing shortage in Puget Sound come 2015 if building doesn’t increase,” Dick Beeson, principal managing broker for RE/MAX Professionals in Tacoma, said in a statement. Mike Gain, president and CEO of Prudential Northwest Realty Associates, said the shutdown “definitely hurt consumer  confidence” and caused would-be buyers to pause.

~Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Times

Home sales, prices still rising despite lean inventory and increasing mortgage rates

NWMLS, Kirkland, WA, August 6, 2013 – Rising interest rates, rising prices and rising consumer confidence are creating a “positive cyclone of home sales activity,” according to members of the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. A robust job market around the Greater Seattle area is also spurring sales.

Member-brokers reported 9,565 pending sales during July for an increase of more than 13.6 percent from a year ago – the highest year-over-year gain since January. Last month’s mutually accepted offers across 21 counties also marked a slight improvement on June’s total of 9,484 pending sales.

Northwest MLS director John Deely, the principal managing broker at Coldwell Banker Bain in Seattle, said multiple offers are being reported in all price ranges “with properly priced new listings, and we’re still seeing a surprising number of all cash buyers.” He also noted many transactions are conditioned on the closing of a pending sale as move-up sellers enter the market to buy a new property.

The number of closed sales and the prices on those transactions both rose by double digits compared to a year ago. Members recorded 7,772 completed transactions area-wide to outgain the year-ago volume by 27.5 percent. The median price of those closed sales, which included single family homes and condominiums, was $282,363. That’s up 10.8 percent from the year-ago figure of $254,900.

“We experienced a mini power surge of sales activity that was touched off by a sudden raise of interest rates during the month of May,” observed J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate. Scott attributes part of the surging activity to buyers who rushed forward to purchase a home before rates climb higher. He also reported more sellers are listing their homes “due to the realization that the next home they purchase will be at a higher interest rate.” As these sellers become buyers, they’re contributing to the “positive cyclone of sales activity,” Scott stated.

MLS members added 10,860 new listings to inventory during July to boost the system-wide selection to 25,272 active listings. That is only about 5.5 percent fewer listings than a year ago when inventory stood at 26,747 active listings.

Despite improving inventory overall, supplies remained low, particularly around job centers. Area-wide there is about 2.6 months of supply, which indicates a seller’s market. (In a normal market, a healthy supply level favoring neither buyers nor sellers is around 6 months, according to industry analysts.)

Three counties have less than three months of supply. At the current pace of sales in King County, it would take just 1.5 months to sell the current supply. In Snohomish there is only 1.6 months of supply and in Thurston County the existing supply would be exhausted in about 2.9 months.

Deely said some sellers are testing the waters with aggressive pricing, but they are experiencing longer market times.

MLS director Frank Wilson, representing Kitsap County where there is 3.3 months of supply, expects the seller’s market will continue for at least the next few months. He noted 16 percent more homes in Kitsap County went under contract than the same month a year ago, crediting some of that uptick to the sense of urgency that buyers are feeling because of recent jumps in interest rates.

The average fixed rate on a 30-year mortgage was 4.37 percent last week, up from January’s rate of 3.41, according to Freddie Mac.

Buyers should be aware of interest rates now and lock in a rate, stressed Wilson, the Kitsap District manager and branch managing broker at John L. Scott Real Estate Poulsbo – Kingston. “There is nothing more disappointing than having your offer accepted on a home, then have an interest rate jump disqualify you from the purchase,” he remarked, adding, “If you want to gamble go to Las Vegas; if you want to buy a home lock the rate.”

Brokers believe robust private sector job growth should have a positive impact on sales momentum. “Builders will have to keep up with the influx of families moving to the area for employment in order to sustain our growing need for housing,” remarked Mike Grady, president and COO of Coldwell Banker Bain in Bellevue.

Buyers searching for single family homes may have an easier time than those seeking condominiums.

Northwest MLS figures show the inventory for single family homes is down 4.6 percent from a year ago, while the selection of condo listings has declined about 13.2 percent. Prices on single family homes that closed during July were up about 9.9 percent from a year ago. Condo prices jumped more than 16.8 percent.

Prices for single family homes (excluding condominiums) in King County continue to climb, with last month’s completed transactions commanding a median sales price of $434,000. That figure reflects an increase of 15.7 percent from a year ago when the median price was $375,250.

Since January, the median sales price for a single family home in King County has risen by $84,000, but the escalation hasn’t seemed to crimp activity. Through July, closed sales of single family homes sold with the county have outgained year-ago totals by nearly 17.9 percent. “This is one of the busiest summer markets I have observed in my 30 plus year real estate career,” Deely commented.

Although some economists expect weaker U.S. economic growth for the remaining months of 2013 and moderating home price increases, brokers say investors are active participants in the local housing market.

King County median home price up 12.5 percent from June 2012

Last month was the third in a row the median price topped $400,000 and the 15th straight month of year-over-year price increases.

The recession may have permanently hit paychecks and the number of jobs available, but median prices for homes sold in the Seattle area are approaching the peak hit six years ago before the housing market tanked.

The Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported Wednesday that the median sale price of a single-family home in King County in June was $427,500, up 12.5 percent from the same month a year ago and up 2.4 percent from May. That’s just $27,500 from the highest median price of $455,000, hit in July 2007.

June was the third consecutive month the median price topped $400,000 and the 15th straight month of year-over-year price increases.

But the traditional summer buyer enthusiasm has already dampened, says Tim Ellis, founder and editor of Seattle Bubble, a real-estate news site.

“Sales dipped between May and June. The fact there was any dip at all at this time of the year indicates cooling among buyers,” Ellis said.

Another factor may be fewer homes for sale. There were only 4,203 homes on the market last month, down 17 percent from last June, while pending sales topped 3,000, up 11.4 percent from a year ago.

Seattle was the 10th-hottest market in the country in May, with 46 percent of homes under contract within two weeks of being listed, and 32 percent under contract in one week or less, according to a report issued this week from RedFin.com, a real-estate company.

Mike Gain, CEO and president of Prudential Northwest Realty Associates in Seattle, says with so many prospective buyers out there, bidding wars have intensified. “Buying is not for everyone, but if you’re going to be in the area for a long time, this is an opportune time,” Gain said.

In Snohomish County, the median sale price for a single-family home rose 13.2 percent from a year ago to $300,000. In Pierce County, it rose 11.3 percent to $224,900. Kitsap County saw a 1 percent drop from a year ago to $247,475.

Condo prices also rose in King and Snohomish counties compared with a year ago. King County’s median price rose 11.3 percent to $244,950. In Snohomish County, it rose 25.2 percent to $179,975.

The recent uptick in mortgage rates may be pushing hesitant buyers off the fence. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropped to 4.29 percent from 4.46 percent a week ago, Freddie Mac reported Wednesday. The rate has hovered around 3.5 percent for much of the last year.

Svenja Gudell, senior economist at Zillow.com, a real-estate information site, said in an email the historically low mortgage rates were not sustainable but that the rise is not necessarily bad news, nor will it derail the housing recovery.

“We anticipate mortgage rates to continue this upward trend,” she said. “But rates of 6 percent seem like a steal, considering the average 30-year fixed rate over the past 42 years was roughly 8.5 percent, according to Freddie Mac.”

~Marissa Evans, Seattle Times

More Buyers/Few Sellers push up King County home prices

Home sales in November outpaced new listings, helping push prices up.

On the last day of November 2011, 158 houses were listed for sale in Bellevue east of Interstate 405. And on the same date this year? Just 62, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Inventory — or a lack of it — is driving King County’s residential real-estate market, brokers and industry observers say. Statistics released Wednesday by the listing service underscore the impact. Countywide, just 3,720 houses were on the market as of Nov. 30, 14 percent fewer than at the end of October and 43 percent fewer than a year ago. Inventory always dips in winter. But it hasn’t been this low since at least 1999. Closed sales in November, however, were up 19 percent year-over-year. There were 16 percent more closings than new listings last month.

 “We’re not replacing what we’re depleting,” said Kathy Estey, managing broker in John L. Scott Real Estate’s Bellevue Main office. “If you did that at the grocery store, pretty soon you wouldn’t have anything left.”

 The imbalance between demand and supply helped push the median single-family sale price for November to $385,000, tops for the year. The previous high, $380,000, came in June.

 “We’ve been in this same place all year — sales are up, but inventory is down,” said real-estate blogger Tim Ellis of Seattlebubble.com. “At some point, you can’t have any more of a sellers’ market.” Why aren’t homeowners putting their houses up for sale? Ellis, Estey and others offer several explanations:

 Many homeowners bought just before the market crashed and still owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. If the owners sold, Estey said, they’d most likely have to rent, and rents are rising. “They might as well stay in their homes and make their payments and take their [mortgage-interest] tax deduction.” Other homeowners may not be “underwater” on their mortgages, but prices still haven’t recovered enough to motivate them to sell, said George Moorhead, branch manager at Bentley Properties in Bothell. “They’re saying, ‘I want to try and recoup that 30 percent that I lost,’ ” he said.

Buyers outnumber sellers in part because more people are buying second homes for investment or retirement, but not selling their original residences, Moorhead said.

 Another factor in the lack of inventory: Little new construction is coming to market. Builders stopped building when the recession hit, Estey said, and only now are gearing back up.

 So will supply increase anytime soon? Yes, but probably not until spring, said Glenn Crellin, associate director of research at the University of Washington’s Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies. Rising prices mean fewer homeowners are underwater, he said, but many don’t want to be bothered with listing their properties during the holidays, or when it’s wet and nasty outside. “They’re going to use that time to make their properties ready for the market,” Crellin said. But sellers may find fewer buyers, he cautioned, if the “fiscal cliff” results in widespread tax increases or pushes the economy back into recession.

 Other gleanings from the listing service’s November report:

•King County’s median single-family sale price of $385,000 was up 20 percent from November 2011. But that’s somewhat misleading: The median fell to post-crisis lows last winter, but has been in the $370,000-$380,000 range since June. The year-over-year increase also reflects a change in the makeup of houses being sold. Bank-repossessed houses accounted for just 6.6 percent of all sales last month, according to online brokerage Redfin, down from 18.5 percent in November 2011.

•While closed house sales were up 19 percent countywide compared with the same month last year, they soared nearly 41 percent in Seattle. Closings were up 91 percent in Queen Anne and Magnolia, 49 percent in Ballard and other northwest neighborhoods. Crellin said he’s not surprised: “Look where the employment growth has been. It’s all been in downtown and South Lake Union.”

Buyers are more selective now about where they want to live, Ellis added, and more are choosing Seattle.

 •King County condo inventory fell even more steeply than the single-family supply. It was down 56 percent from November 2011. Condo sales volume and prices rose, but more modestly than houses. Closed sales were up 10 percent year-over-year, while the median sale price, $204,500, was up 7 percent.

 •Single-family sales volume in Snohomish County was flat, with just three more houses changing hands this November than last.

 The median price, $271,000, was up 11 percent.

Eric Pryne: epryne@seattletimes.com

  

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