2024 Housing Market Predictions

Housing prices continue to climb despite sky-high mortgage rates

Experts in a recent Zillow Research survey believe the inventory of housing to return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2024.

• Despite soaring mortgage rates pushing down demand for homes, real estate prices are still sky-high.
• Home sales have started to decline however, with some sellers even lowering their asking price, leading some to suspect an impending housing market cool-off.

While there are plenty of signs that housing demand is declining, economists everywhere continue to theorize how long it will take to truly see home prices cool-off. Will the housing market ease in the next few years?

Many home-buying experts seem to think so. In a recent Zillowsurvey, the majority of panelists expect home prices to ease between now and 2024.

The primary issue plaguing the U.S. housing market is fundamentally supply and demand. Homes are simply not being built at a rate fast enough to match their sky-high demand. For context, the stockpile of available homes in the country is currently around two-months worth. In a normal housing environment, the U.S. typically has a five month or higher inventory of homes.

As such, despite the highest mortgage rates in 13 years, and rapidly falling demand for homes, the housing market has remained red hot. Some suspect that further rate hikes, possibly compounded by a recession will be enough to cool down prices. Others feel the housing market is likely to continue growing, but at a much slower rate.

The housing market is, in some sense still recovering from the Covid-19 pandemic. When the pandemic hit, both buyers and sellers were sent into a frenzy, largely due to record-low mortgage rates. Add in a general slow-down in home construction the past few years, has led to the currently shored-up state of the housing market.

When Will the Housing Market Cool-Off?

In the long-term, raising the supply of homes remains one of the only foolproof methods of lowering prices. In that regard, the future may be bright for would-be homebuyers.

According to Zillow Research, the supply of homes may not catch up to historical levels until around 2024. In a survey of housing experts, the majority believe home inventories will reach pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2024.

In the survey, experts were asked what year they expect to see inventory return to at least a monthly average of 1.5 million units. The most optimistic 4% answered 2022, and a further 37% answered 2023. The most frequent answer, from 38% of respondents, was 2024, meaning a cumulative 79% of respondents expect such a restoration of inventory sometime between now and the end of 2024.

It’s difficult to predict the future, especially amidst the rampant uncertainty present today. With that said, it’s clear that help is on the way for first-time home buyers, sooner or later.

By Shrey Dua, InvestorPlace

Housing Market leveling off

The recent housing market is more balanced, as a new report shows a significant increase in active listings, a slowdown in sales and prices that are still rising, according to the latest report from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

The days of “multiple offers and waived inspections, at least in Pierce County, are behind us,” said Mike Larson, a member of the NWMLS board of directors.

Larson added that buyers are getting a little relief, but not much, as the market eases back into the pre-COVID-19 market.

Over 13,000 new listings were added to the NWMLS inventory during May, an increase of 9.7% year-over-year. It’s also the highest monthly number since June of 2021.

Snohomish and Douglas counties more than doubled their active listings from a year ago, with nearly a 135% increase for each county.

“The significant increase in the number of homes for sale has some speculating that the market is about to implode, but that is very unlikely,” said Matthew Gardner, chief economist at Windermere Real Estate. “What’s more likely to occur is that the additional supply will lead us toward a more balanced market, which after years of such lopsided conditions, is much needed.”

Gardner also believes that rising mortgage rates are not yet negatively impacting the housing market.

“The additional supply of homes for sale is giving buyers more choices, which is something they haven’t had in several years,” Gardner said.

Buyers should expect to pay more for homes and condos, although those increases may be leveling.

~Cox Media

Is a more “normal” market on the horizon?

For the fifth consecutive month, pending home sales declined in March from February, down 1.2%, signaling a potential return to “much calmer” conditions, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Only the northeast region saw an increase in pending sales in March from February, according to an NAR news release based off data from its pending home sales index. But compared to the prior year, “pending sales fell for the 10th consecutive month, by 8.2%, with pending sales down across all regions.”

Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the NAR, said the dip in contract signings suggests “multiple offers will soon dissipate and be replaced by much calmer and normalized market conditions.”

He also expects higher mortgage rates to remain a key factor affecting home sales.

Yun forecasts the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will reach 5.3% by the fourth quarter, resulting in a 2022 mortgage rate average of 4.9%. The average mortgage rate should jump to 5.4% by 2023, Yun said.

“As it stands, the sudden large gains in mortgage rates have reduced the pool of eligible homebuyers, and that has consequently lowered buying activity,” Yun said. “The aspiration to purchase a home remains, but the financial capacity has become a major limiting factor.”

Yun additionally expects inflation will average 8.2% for the year, “although it will start to moderate to 5.5% in the second half of this year.” As of March the higher mortgage rates and sustained price appreciation has resulted in a year-over-year increase of 31% in mortgage payments – although major Sun Belt metros such as Tampa, Phoenix and Las Vegas have seen increases closer to 50% year-over-year.

Despite that, Yun said: “Overall existing-home sales this year look to be down 9% from the heated pace of last year. Home prices are in no danger of decline on a nationwide basis, but the price gains will steadily decelerate such that the median home price in 2022 will likely be up 8% from last year.”

Renters will face similar increases, which Yun says could prompt some renters to explore ownership – although the increasing mortgage rates may price them out.

“Fast-rising rents will encourage renters to consider buying a home, though higher mortgage rates will present challenges,” Yun said. “Strong rent growth nonetheless will lead to a boom in multifamily housing starts, with more than 20% growth this year.”

Even as home inventory remains low, Yun also expects single-family homebuilders to take a cautionary approach, resulting only in a modest “boost to construction of less than 5%.”

~ Kate Douglas, HWMedia

Prices, rates & INVENTORY are up in Seattle

Rising mortgage rates and high home prices mean prospective buyers in Seattle should brace for a financial one-two punch if they plan to purchase a home this spring, but a surge in inventory should keep the city’s housing market humming through the summer.

These findings were laid out in the latest monthly report from Zillow, which said the value of a typical Seattle home has risen nearly 25% since last year. The average price for a home in the city is now $771,631, the report said. If that shocks you, just wait until you hear how much mortgage rates have grown during the same time.

“Higher mortgage rates were anticipated this year, but the speed of their rise has been breathtaking,” said Jeff Tucker, a senior economist at Zillow, in a news release.

In Seattle, homeowners are paying 42.8% more on their monthly mortgages than they were a year ago. The current average mortgage price — $3,009 per month, based on a 30-year mortgage with a 20% down payment — is 21.1% higher than it was at the start of 2022.

By applying these figures to the real world, we see that — in a typical scenario — a Seattle homebuyer could spend $154,326 on a down payment and have their first $3,009 mortgage payment due roughly 30 days later. Conventional wisdom says these steep upfront costs would likely push would-be buyers out of the market, but another factor highlighted in the Zillow report explains why that might not happen.

Inventory, which has been dreadfully low through most of the coronavirus pandemic, is on the rise. While the number of available homes in Seattle is still 17.7% lower than it was a year ago, that figure has grown 37.5% since February.

More inventory means less competition, which keeps already staggering costs lower than they would be if there were fewer houses available. The Zillow report shows that, despite high base prices for homes and mortgages, people in Seattle are still willing to purchase a house — newly pending sales are up nearly 34% since February.

“March was the biggest test yet of whether enough buyers can meet the new asking prices to keep home values growing at a record pace, and the answer was ‘So far, yes,’” Tucker said. “There will be a point when the cost of buying a home deters enough buyers to bring price growth back down to Earth, but for now, there is plenty of fuel in the tank as home shopping season kicks into gear.”

Seattle isn’t alone in the trends detailed in the Zillow report. A typical home in the U.S. is worth 20.6% more than it was at this time last year, and average monthly mortgage payments are 38% higher. Inventory is 22.5% lower than it was last year, but that figure has grown 11.6% since February.

~ Alec Regimbal, SeattlePI

Inventory Expected to Rebound in 2024

The housing market is expected to return to pre-pandemic, 2019 norms — at least in terms of inventory and the share of purchases made by first-time home buyers — by 2024, according to a panel of housing market experts polled in the latest Zillow home price expectations survey.

The dwindling supply of homes for sale has been a key driver of the recent explosion in home values, which have risen 32% in the past two years. Total inventory has fallen from a monthly average of 1.6 million units in 2018 and 2019 to just over 1 million in 2021, and monthly figures in 2022 are lower still.

Inventory should return to a monthly average of 1.5 million units or higher in 2024, according to the largest group (38%) of respondents to Zillow’s survey. But many are more optimistic — the second-largest group (36%) believes supply will bounce back to pre-pandemic levels in 2023, while 2025 earned the third-highest share of votes with 12%.

“Inventory and mortgage rates will determine how far and how fast home prices will rise this year and beyond,” said Zillow senior economist Jeff Tucker. “We are seeing new listings returning to the market, slowly, as we enter the hottest selling season of the year, but this supply deficit is going to take a long time to fill.”

Return of the first-time home buyer
The pandemic ushered in record-breaking price growth alongside rent hikes that made saving for down payments even more difficult. As a result, the share of first-time home buyers dropped from 45% in 2019 to 37% in 2021, according to a Zillow survey of recent buyers.

First-time buyers should regain their pre-pandemic share of the market in a couple of years, according to the majority of experts polled, with 26% pointing to 2024, and 25% liking 2025. Eighteen percent of the experts polled did not believe the share of first-time buyers will rise above 45% until after 2030, despite Millennials — the largest U.S. generation ever — aging well into their prime home-buying years before that time.

Inflation considerations
Inflation has already begun eroding the bottom lines of American households, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics noting rising costs for energy, housing and food as prime factors driving it to a four-decade high.

Of the six categories considered, survey participants expect energy prices to increase the most over the course of 2022, followed by house prices, residential rents and food costs. Employee wages and stock prices were ranked fifth and sixth, respectively, rounding out the list.

Price growth projections
Pulsenomics founder Terry Loebs said the panel’s average projections for home price growth in 2022 have been revised upward, from 6.6% three months ago to 9% in this survey.

“Against the backdrop of tightening Fed policy and increasing mortgage rates, this more bullish outlook for home values suggests that home inventory shortages will remain the dominant price driver this year,” Loebs said. “If price increases this year for homes, rents, energy, and food each exceed wage growth – as the panel expects – home affordability challenges will intensify further, especially for low- and moderate-income renters.”

Zillow economists forecast a 16.3% rise in typical home values from the present through December.

~Brenda Richardson, Forbes

Housing inventory plunges in November to record low

Shopping for a new home in late November most likely gave frustrated buyers little to be thankful for as demand for homes continued to outpace supply.

The number of homes for sale hit an all-time low during the week ending November 28, according to a new report from Redfin, a technology-powered real estate brokerage. During that period, sustained demand pushed the median home price to another record high, and a third of homes sold in one week or less.

“The number of homes for sale typically declines another 15% in December,” said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather. “That means that by the end of the year, there will likely be 100,000 fewer homes for sale than there were in February when housing supply last hit rock bottom. I think more new listings will hit the market in the new year, but there will also be a long line of buyers who are queuing up right now.”

“Meanwhile, headlines and new restrictions related to the omicron variant of the coronavirus might fuel some uncertainty and volatility in the economy,” said Fairweather. “In the short term, global interest rates, including mortgage rates, could fall. In this extremely tight housing market, we would quickly see a proportional increase in competition and home prices.”

Key housing market takeaways

• The median home-sale price hit a new all-time high of $360,375, up 14% year over year. This was up 31% from the same period in 2019 and up 1.5% from a month earlier, far greater than the 0.2% increase seen during the same period last year.
• Asking prices of newly listed homes were up 12% from the same time a year ago and up 27% from 2019 to a median of $349,750.
• Pending home sales were up 8% year over year, and up 49% compared to the same period in 2019.
• New listings of homes for sale were down 4% from a year earlier, but up 12% from 2019. During the seven-day period ending November 28, active listings (the number of homes listed for sale at any point during the period) fell to a new all-time low. For the four-week period, active listings fell 23% from 2020 and 42% from 2019.
• 45% of homes that went under contract had an accepted offer within the first two weeks on the market, above the 39% rate of a year earlier and the 28% rate in 2019. Since the four-week period ending September 19, the share of homes under contract within two weeks is up 2.3 percentage points. During the same time in 2019, the share fell 3.1 points.
• 33% of homes that went under contract had an accepted offer within one week of hitting the market, up from 27% during the same period a year earlier and 18% in 2019. Since the four-week period ending September 12, the share of homes under contract within a week is up 2.9 percentage points. During the same time in 2019, the share fell 2.3 points.
• Homes that sold were on the market for a median of 25 days, down from 31 days a year earlier and 46 days in 2019.
• 43% of homes sold above list price, up from 35% a year earlier and 21% in 2019.
• On average, 3.8% of homes for sale each week had a price drop, up 0.7 percentage points from the same time in 2020 and up 0.2 points from this time in 2019.
• The average sale-to-list price ratio, which measures how close homes are selling to their asking prices, was 100.5%. In other words, the average home sold for 0.5% above its asking price.

Brenda Richardson, Forbes

Home shortage likely to outlast other scarcities

The scarcity of properties that plagued the housing market long before Covid-19 struck the U.S. likely will outlast other pandemic shortages, according to Goldman Sachs economists.

While the supply-chain disruptions impacting the availability of appliances, used cars and computer chips will ease as the pandemic ebbs, real estate won’t be so lucky, the report said.

“Of all the shortages afflicting the US economy, the housing shortage might last the longest,” the economists, led by Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius, said in the report earlier this month. “While the supply of homes for sale has increased modestly since the spring, it remains well below pre-pandemic levels and the outlook offers no quick fixes for the shortage.”

The headwinds facing homebuilders trying to expand inventory with new houses include shortages of lots, labor and building materials, the report said.

Years of under-building in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis has left the market with a dearth of about 5.2 million single-family homes, according to a report last month from realtor.com.

The lack of new houses has increased competition in the existing-home market. Housing economists use a gauge called “months supply” to measure inventory. It’s an estimate of how long it would take to sell all the properties listed if nothing else came on the market. In a balanced market, it’s typically close to 6 months.

The latest data, for September, showed the months supply at 2.6, the lowest level ever recorded for the month, according to data released last week by the National Association of Realtors.

Some relief is on the way, according to NAR’s housing forecast. Ground-breakings for single-family homes, known as housing starts, likely will total 1.15 million this year, surpassing the 1 million mark for the first time since 2007.

It would be a gain of 15% from 2020, according to Commerce Department data. But, it won’t be enough to satisfy the demand for properties boosted by a Federal Reserve bond-buying program that has kept mortgage rates near 3% since last year.

“Homebuilders continue to face headwinds that were present before the pandemic – especially a lack of construction workers and a lack of available plots to build on – and the pandemic has exacerbated those problems with further delays from supply chain disruptions, lumber shortages, and now economy-wide labor shortages,” the Goldman Sachs report said.

~Kathleen Howley, Forbes

Market offers hope to homebuyers…but may be temporary

Homebuyers may find some good news in the latest report from Northwest Multiple Listing Service (NWMLS). The number of active listings at the end of June, 6,358, reached the highest level since November when buyers could choose from 6,505 properties. The volume of new listings added last month was the highest number in 17 months (13,111 last month versus 14,689 at the end of November 2019).

“Homebuyers will be happy to hear that between May and June the number of listings in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties rose, giving them more homes to choose from and possibly easing the pressure just a little,” remarked Matthew Gardner, chief economist at Windermere Real Estate.

For the tri-county area, total active listings of single family homes and condominiums increased 14.5% from May. System-wide, the report covering all 26 counties served by Northwest MLS shows month-to-month inventory improved 14.9%.

“Buyers need some relief, so I hope this trend continues,” said Gardner.

Broker Dean Rebhuhn, owner at Village Homes and Properties, agreed the slight increase in new listings is good news for buyers, but tempered his optimism. “Low inventory and high demand coupled with low interest rates continue to drive up the market.” He also noted Kittitas County “is no exception to brisk sales. Many homes in that county are selling within one or two weeks.”

NWMLS director Frank Leach, broker/owner at RE/MAX Platinum Services in Silverdale, described Kitsap County as another “heated market” but said brokers there are growing inventory very slowly, resulting in more selection for buyers. Brokers added 621 new listings to that county’s inventory, improving on May’s volume by more than 13%. That number also marked the first time since May 2019 that the number of new listings in Kitsap County topped 600.

Other industry analysts suggested the uptick in inventory might be short-lived, citing vigorous activity as Washington state lifts several strict coronavirus restrictions.

“We continue on a trajectory that will keep the Puget Sound region at the top of national lists for one of the hottest housing markets,” stated John Deely, executive vice president of operations for Coldwell Banker Bain. “Inventory on hand remains at two-to-three weeks in the larger counties,” he noted.

The latest report from Northwest MLS shows a year-over-year (YOY) drop in active listings of more than 34%, with only about two weeks (0.58 months) of supply available areawide. Last month marked the first time since July 2020 that the year-over-year decline fell below 40%.

Only 10 of the 26 counties in the MLS report have more than one month of supply. Of these, only one (Ferry) has more than two months of supply. Snohomish County’s inventory declined more than 44% from a year ago, leaving it with only about 10 days of inventory (0.35 months of supply), the lowest of all the counties served by Northwest MLS.

“While pending sales saw a significant drop over this time last year, we believe that rather than that being an indication of a flattening of the market, this is a result of our extreme heat events, a typical summer slowdown as schools let out and people starting vacations, and, this year, the reopening of the country and discontinuation of COVID-19 restrictions,” explained Deely.

Pending sales rose about 3.5% compared with a year ago (from 11,916 to 12,328) but fell slightly from May when mutually accepted offers outgained the number of listings added during the month.

“The local real estate market is virtually sold out in the more affordable and mid-price ranges, even into the luxury market in some areas,” reported J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate. “This places extra focus on each new resale listing as it comes onto the market.”

An analysis of last month’s statistics by price range illustrates Scott’s point. Fewer than 23% of June’s listings had asking prices under $400,000. About a third of the inventory was listed at $800,000 or above.

James Young, the director of the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington, said the decline in active listings volume suggests homes are selling and closing very quickly once listed. He noted that while listing levels for June were higher than two years ago, pending and closed sales are much higher. “This indicates that well priced properties are closing very quickly.”

Lennox Scott concurred. “Many homes are going under contract within days due to the intense buyer demand.” He anticipates two more months of “elevated new resale listings” before the selection starts decreasing. “We expect the extremely high intensity for each listing will continue in most price ranges locally into the spring of 2022 due to historically low interest rates creating a large backlog of buyers looking to purchase a home.”

Deely said affordability, especially for first-time homebuyers, continues to be a concern. “Given indications from tech companies like Amazon and Microsoft to lease large office spaces and hire thousands of employees in our region, drawing people from higher-priced markets like Silicon Valley with lots of money to spend, we don’t see much change in this scenario for buyers in the short term.”

Brokers reported 10,923 completed transactions during June, a 31.4% increase from twelve months ago, and up 16.5% from May’s total of 9,374. Prices on last month’s sales, which includes single family homes and condominiums, rose nearly 27% from a year ago, from $465,000 to $589,000.

The single family segment accounted for about 86% of the sales. The median sales price on those 9,417 transactions was $611,000, which was 27% higher than the year-ago figure of $480,950.

Condo sales jumped a whopping 59% from a year ago, with prices increasing more than 20%. For last month’s 1,506 closed sales, the median price was $440,000; a year ago it was $365,000.

Looking at month-to-month, rather than YOY changes, Gardner noted King and Pierce counties experienced only modest price increases, while prices in Snohomish County rose by “a solid 3.1%. I believe this points to an uptick in buyers who can continue working from home and have made the choice to move from King to Snohomish County where housing is more affordable. The same can be inferred for Kitsap County.”

A comparison of Northwest MLS figures shows the median price on last month’s completed transactions in King County was $779,919, while in Snohomish County it was about $105,000 less ($675,000). In Kitsap County, where the median price was $505,000, the difference is nearly $275,000. Pierce County homes that sold last month had a median price of $507,375.

Commenting on the NWMLS report, Dick Beeson, managing broker at RE/MAX Northwest, Tacoma-Gig Harbor, said it reflects a “slight turn of the wheel. Sellers are still in control, but their expectations need a slight readjustment. Instead of 20 offers, there may only be five or fewer. Maybe even only one.”

When that happens, some sellers balk at selling, thinking they are being undersold, according to Beeson. “Sellers must remember, you can’t underprice a home in this market. You can still overprice a property. The market will find you out and drive the price to the appropriate market value.”

Given the strong, competitive market across all price ranges, Beeson offered a recipe for buyer success. “Scour the new inventory coming on the market daily; write the best offer you can using all the offer strategies you’re equipped to employ, and then decide if the extra cost to win the sale is an acceptable value to you. Close the sale quickly, and don’t whimper!”

Rebhuhn also offered hope for buyers who are prepared to act. “Generally speaking, July and August provide more opportunities for buyers as there is less competition because of vacations and fewer relocation buyers in mid-summer.”

Builders are also caught in the frenzy. “Builders are racing to bring new communities online and hoping to hit the sweet spot as prices on building materials for new construction begin to fall,” reported Frank Leach. He said new apartment buildings and condos are being approved and built all across Kitsap County to accommodate newly arriving residents. Notably, Leach said an aircraft carrier due to arrive shortly could potentially add 3,500 people to that county’s rental market.

Although pending sales in Kitsap County dipped slightly from a year ago, they were up nearly 12% from May. “The market in Kitsap County is expected to remain very competitive with exposure of only eight days on the market, on average, across all price ranges,” Leach noted.

NWMLS Press Release, July 7, 2021

Increase in housing supply is on the horizon

If you’re one of the many homebuyers having trouble finding a house these days — at least one in your price range — there just may be a light at the end of the tunnel.

According to a new survey of over 100 economists, there should be a boost in housing supply not too far down the road. 

When exactly? The majority of those surveyed said inventory growth should return to normal by the second half of this year. Another quarter said early next year. 

Either way, it should be a boon to buyers, offering a break from the countless bidding wars and ever-rising prices seen in the last few months. In fact, according to the survey, most economists think home price growth will slow to just 4.5% this year. (Prices are currently up more than 10% over last year — more than double that forecast).

“This is the most bullish near-term outlook for home prices we’ve seen from our experts since the early stages of the post-bust recovery,” said Terry Loebs, founder of Pulsenomics, which administered the survey in conjunction with Zillow. “The panel’s five-year average annual home price forecast has never been more optimistic.” 

It seems we’re already seeing signs of an inventory shift, too — at least a minor one.

According to data from Realtor.com, new home listings have increased for two weeks straight and are now up 40% over last year. To be fair, this time last year, the pandemic was still in its early days, and many sellers were fearful of listing their home — not to mention shopping for a new one — as the virus raged on.

Still, it’s a step in the right direction.

“We see large year over year trends that are an indication of the huge progress we’ve made toward normalization,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist for Realtor.com. “Buyers who are currently struggling to find a home are likely to see improvement in the number of choices available to them as more sellers list for the spring buying season.”

Considering we’re currently in the midst of the most profitable week to sell a home, that may just be true.

~ Aly J Yale, Forbes

Was September the Sign of a Bigger Market Cool-Down?

Statistics, especially month-to-month statistics, don’t always give the best indicator of the local real estate market.

For instance: The Northwest Multiple Listing Service has found that, in September, inventory reached 1.7 months of supply by the end of the month. September was tied with February for the high in supply for the year. (A balanced market has  four to six months of supply.)

Couple that with the $20,000 decline in the median sales price in King County to $565,000, and you’d get the sense that maybe some balance is coming back to the market.

Then again, listings often fall off by about 30 percent every September and October, compared to the spring and summer months. And in the winter, they drop off even more. Every price drop feels like a annual change.

“While prices for single-family homes and condos were up more than 14 percent annually in King County, it’s hard to ignore the $20,000 price drop between August and September,” said OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate.

“But if you look at the historic data more closely, it shows that prices have also dropped between August and September in five of the past six years, which points to a seasonal pattern rather than a long-term trend that we need to be concerned about.”

But that doesn’t mean it’s all negativity. Just because the market is slowing doesn’t mean buyers will be up a creek without a paddle, according to J. Lennox Scott, CEO and chairman of John L. Scott.

“The pressure cooker for the housing market continues as the typical seasonal market comes into play for new listings coming on the market,” Scott told NWMLS. “October will be the best month for selection and availability until late February.”

Get in while the getting’s good, Seattle buyers.

~Zosha Millman, Seattle PI