Western Washington housing market cooling

New numbers show home price growth slowed for the first time in months, as high-interest rates and even higher home prices eliminate would-be homebuyers.

After a chaotic year of bidding wars, buyers waiving all contingencies and homes selling for well over the asking price, the housing market may finally be cooling off.

New data from the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index shows home price growth slowed down for the first time since 2021 in the month of April nationwide, including in western Washington.

In the month of May, a new report from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service (NWMLS) also showed a big boost in active listings and a slowdown in sales.

The changing tides come as mortgage rates soar to their highest level in 14 years, pricing out many would-be homebuyers.

“The housing market is slowing down. It used to be very competitive when interest rates were close to 3%. Now mortgage rates are close to 6%, and it got 50% more expensive to borrow to buy a home right now than it was just a couple of months ago,” said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin, a real estate brokerage firm.

“A lot of buyers are just bowing out of the market,” she continued.

In turn, those high-interest rates are taking a toll on buyers’ purchasing power.

According to Redfin, in December 2021, a buyer with a $2,500 monthly housing budget would have been able to purchase a home that cost just over $517,000.

In June 2022, that same budget would only get you a house priced just shy of $400,000.

On average, that means buyers lost roughly $120,000 in purchasing power because of the rate hikes.

In addition, while buyers can afford less, home prices are still high.

“On a $2,500 budget in Seattle, last year you would have been able to afford about 12% of homes, and now it’s only five, six percent of homes,” Fairweather said. “There are just so few homes that are affordable to somebody making $100,000 or less.”

As would-be buyers are priced out, homes are now staying on the market longer.

“Homes aren’t getting as many offers, some aren’t getting offers at all, so they sit on the market and that inventory has a chance to pile up,” Fairweather explained.

Redfin reports a 16.2% increase in Seattle housing inventory from April to May of this year.

NWMLS is based in Kirkland, Washington, and services 26 counties in our region. The nonprofit group reports 13,075 new listings added to its inventory during the month of May — up 9.7% from a year earlier and the highest monthly number since June 2021.

The decline in buyers has led some sellers to adjust their pricing.

“Some (sellers) are dropping their prices. We’re seeing more and more price drops crop up. The market just got too hot all across the country and including Seattle, so now sellers have to be a bit more realistic,” said Fairweather.

Fairweather explained she believes the days of buyers waiving all contingencies are likely in the past, now that there is more inventory and less competition, but that doesn’t mean buyers have the upper hand.

“You still have to pay a lot of money, so it’s not like buyers are really winning in this situation, but I think because there are fewer buyers out there, sellers are having to compromise a bit more,” she said.

Fairweather advises buyers to focus on getting a home that is right for them, and doing the best they can to find what they want based on their budget.

“The good news is when you do find the home, you’re going to have a better chance of winning it because there’s less competition,” she said.

NWMLS is based in Kirkland, Washington, and services 26 counties in our region. The nonprofit group reports 13,075 new listings added to its inventory during the month of May — up 9.7% from a year earlier and the highest monthly number since June 2021.

The decline in buyers has led some sellers to adjust their pricing.

“Some (sellers) are dropping their prices. We’re seeing more and more price drops crop up. The market just got too hot all across the country and including Seattle, so now sellers have to be a bit more realistic,” said Fairweather.

Fairweather explained she believes the days of buyers waiving all contingencies are likely in the past, now that there is more inventory and less competition, but that doesn’t mean buyers have the upper hand.

“You still have to pay a lot of money, so it’s not like buyers are really winning in this situation, but I think because there are fewer buyers out there, sellers are having to compromise a bit more,” she said.

Fairweather advises buyers to focus on getting a home that is right for them, and doing the best they can to find what they want based on their budget.

“The good news is when you do find the home, you’re going to have a better chance of winning it because there’s less competition,” she said.

~Elle Thomas, KIRO 7 News

2024 Housing Market Predictions

Housing prices continue to climb despite sky-high mortgage rates

Experts in a recent Zillow Research survey believe the inventory of housing to return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2024.

• Despite soaring mortgage rates pushing down demand for homes, real estate prices are still sky-high.
• Home sales have started to decline however, with some sellers even lowering their asking price, leading some to suspect an impending housing market cool-off.

While there are plenty of signs that housing demand is declining, economists everywhere continue to theorize how long it will take to truly see home prices cool-off. Will the housing market ease in the next few years?

Many home-buying experts seem to think so. In a recent Zillowsurvey, the majority of panelists expect home prices to ease between now and 2024.

The primary issue plaguing the U.S. housing market is fundamentally supply and demand. Homes are simply not being built at a rate fast enough to match their sky-high demand. For context, the stockpile of available homes in the country is currently around two-months worth. In a normal housing environment, the U.S. typically has a five month or higher inventory of homes.

As such, despite the highest mortgage rates in 13 years, and rapidly falling demand for homes, the housing market has remained red hot. Some suspect that further rate hikes, possibly compounded by a recession will be enough to cool down prices. Others feel the housing market is likely to continue growing, but at a much slower rate.

The housing market is, in some sense still recovering from the Covid-19 pandemic. When the pandemic hit, both buyers and sellers were sent into a frenzy, largely due to record-low mortgage rates. Add in a general slow-down in home construction the past few years, has led to the currently shored-up state of the housing market.

When Will the Housing Market Cool-Off?

In the long-term, raising the supply of homes remains one of the only foolproof methods of lowering prices. In that regard, the future may be bright for would-be homebuyers.

According to Zillow Research, the supply of homes may not catch up to historical levels until around 2024. In a survey of housing experts, the majority believe home inventories will reach pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2024.

In the survey, experts were asked what year they expect to see inventory return to at least a monthly average of 1.5 million units. The most optimistic 4% answered 2022, and a further 37% answered 2023. The most frequent answer, from 38% of respondents, was 2024, meaning a cumulative 79% of respondents expect such a restoration of inventory sometime between now and the end of 2024.

It’s difficult to predict the future, especially amidst the rampant uncertainty present today. With that said, it’s clear that help is on the way for first-time home buyers, sooner or later.

By Shrey Dua, InvestorPlace

Cooling housing market – 25% of home listings cut asking price

Home sellers are slashing prices as the housing sector cools, according to a research from a real-estate data firm.

More than 25% of homes on the market right now have cut their price, Altos Research found, which is in stark contrast to how prices have been climbing over the last two years. 

“Rising rates and the shift in the economy has slowed down the super-eager buyers,” Mike Simonsen, co-founder and CEO of Altos Research, a real estate analytics firm, told MarketWatch. “And what we’re feeling is the speed of the shift.”

Put bluntly: “We’re shifting from a real buying frenzy to much more normal conditions,” he added.

Adding to the cooling off: On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve raised the benchmark interest rate by 0.75 percentage point, the biggest increase since 1994 as it tries to tame rising inflation from a 40-year high.

The U.S. housing market boom amid the pandemic was felt across the country. In a high-demand area like San Jose, California, the typical home was valued at $1.5 million, as of May 31, according to Zillow. That’s up 23.7% from the previous year. In May 2020, the typical home in the Bay Area was valued at $1.09 million.

Under normal conditions, about a third of homes listed on the market for sale take a price cut before they’re sold, Simonsen explained, and when the market is hot, that drops down to 25%. This spring, however, only 14% of homes on the market took a price cut. And that’s a reflection of high demand and low inventory.

“Sellers in the last two years can overprice their home and still get offers — that condition of the frenzy is gone, so it’s a much more normal market,” Simonsen said.

With buyers slowly backing off, that percentage is now climbing, a trend also supported by research from Redfin, a real-estate brokerage. Some 21% of sellers dropped their list price during the four weeks ending June 5, which was the second-highest share on record, going back to 2015, Redin said.

Sellers will need to lower their asking price by summer’s end. “By July, expect to be back to our normal conditions nationally,” Simonsen added. “We’ve been hotter than normal for over two full years since the start of the pandemic. By August, sellers who aren’t prepared will be surprised.”

Good news for first-time home buyers

The median sales price of a house sold in the U.S. was still at a record high of $428,700 in the first quarter of 2022, up from $313,000 in the first quarter of 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic, according to data from the St. Louis Fed. Simonsen said the magnitude of price cuts could vary, from $5,000 upwards, depending on the value of the house.

For first-time house buyers, who have seen prices gradually rise out of their reach over the last two years, there could be some relief. “If people want to buy a home, they would get outbid by maybe somebody with all-cash, or an investor,” Simonsen said. “But now, selection is increasing, competition is decreasing, and they finally have some opportunities to buy.” 

But don’t expect prices to hit rock-bottom just yet. “There is nothing in the data yet that shows an indication of home prices crashing,” Simonsen said. But “there is an indication of probably zero home price appreciation in 2023.”

~Aarthi Swaminathan, Market Watch

Mortgage rates at lowest levels since late September

• The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances decreased to 3.16% from 3.24%.
• Refinance demand rose 7% last week from the previous week.
• Mortgage applications to purchase a home increased 3% for the week but were 4% lower than the same week one year ago.

Mortgage rates fell for the second straight week last week, and that helped boost refinance demand for the first time in a while. As a result, total mortgage application volume rose 5.5% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548,250 or less) decreased to 3.16% from 3.24%, with points remaining unchanged at 0.34 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment. The rate is now down 14 basis points in the past two weeks, but still 18 basis points higher than the same week one year ago.

Refinance demand, which is highly sensitive to weekly rate moves, rose 7% last week from the previous week. It was, however, 28% lower year over year. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 63.5% of total applications from 61.9% the previous week.

“Although overall activity remains close to January 2020 lows, homeowners acted on the decrease in rates,” said Joel Kan, an MBA economist. “Additionally, the average loan balance for a refinance application was the highest in a month.”

Mortgage applications to purchase a home increased 3% for the week but were 4% lower than the same week one year ago. The housing market is well into its slower season, and while demand is stronger than usual, homebuyers are still facing a lean and pricey market. The brief drop in rates may have brought some buyers back, but given how high the costs are today, it didn’t give them much more purchasing power.

Mortgage rates did drop slightly lower to start this week. They are now at the best levels since late September.

~Diana Olick, CNBC

Housing boom will end when interest rates rise

The current housing boom will flatten in 2022—or possibly early 2023—when mortgage interest rates rise. There is no bubble to burst, though prices may retreat from panic-buying highs.

The boom produced some frantic buying, bids in excess of asking prices, and plenty of worry among would-be homeowners. But this has not been a bubble. A bubble is not simply rising prices, but demand not justified by fundamental economic factors. The key to the buying boom has been low mortgage rates plus a shift in desired housing type.

Mortgage rates hit what was then an all-time low of four percent in 2011, and then remained in that neighborhood until the pandemic, when they hit three percent. The decline in mortgage rates in 2020 dropped the monthly payment on a house by 12 percent, enabling many people to buy houses now rather than later.

In addition to the low mortgage rates, some people saw a future of remote work and wanted more space, which often means moving out of an apartment into a single family house. Others found urban living less fun, so they headed into the suburbs where houses are more common than apartments.

The increased demand for houses drove prices up, quite predictably. Yet the supply could not adjust as fast as demand. Home builders ramped up production in the second half of 2020, but after a few months they ran into supply constraints. Ready-to-build lots were all bought up, labor for construction was hard to find and social distancing made workers less productive. Now rising materials prices and goods on back-order squeeze profit margins. That’s how we find ourselves in the current housing boom.

But this boom is not a bubble, because the rise in prices is easily explained by the fundamentals of cheap mortgages and supply limitations. Recent housing starts are below historical averages, though that is justified by lower population growth. But with the shift from multifamily to single family housing, recent construction levels make sense. There need be no sudden drop in new construction to maintain a reasonable equilibrium.

When will the boom end? The two keys are satisfying the new demand and mortgage rates. Low mortgage rates allowed young families to buy houses earlier than they otherwise would have. It did not change the economics of buying for people who were never going to be homeowners. Instead, low mortgage rates enabled people to achieve their dreams earlier than they otherwise would have. In this sense, the strong housing market of 2020 and 2021 has been borrowing from the future. However, the shift in preferences from urban living to suburban living by people who previously could have bought houses is permanent new demand. At least, so long as they don’t become disillusioned about home ownership.

Mortgage rates are likely to rise when financial markets anticipate more inflation and action by the Federal Reserve to stem inflation. Although the Fed’s traditional tools impact short-term rates, with only small effect on mortgage rates, the new actions by the Fed impact mortgages directly. The Fed has been buying mortgages wholesale, depressing mortgage interest rates. The Fed has also been buying many treasury securities, which are often competitors to mortgages for institutional investors.

Mortgage rates are likely to rise a full percentage point by mid-2022, though this forecast exceeds the average prediction of my fellow economists. They doubt long-term interest rates will rise by a percentage point even out to December 2022. If they are right and I am wrong, then the housing market will remain strong longer.

Business leaders in the housing supply chain should enjoy their strong sales this year but not anticipate further growth in the coming years. Major capital projects must pencil out with sales back at 2019 levels.

Prospective home buyers should probably chill. It’s been a tough buying season. Although prices are unlikely to fall nationwide, there will probably be easier buying opportunities in 2023.

by Bill Conerly, Forbes

How Interest Rates Affect Buying Power

Whether you are thinking about buying or selling a home, interest rate trends are an important factor to consider. Mortgage interest rates have been rising and experts, including Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner, predict that they will continue to increase in 2019.

Interest Rates and Buying Power

The chart below shows the impact rising interest rates would have if you planned to purchase a $675,000 home while keeping your principal and interest payments at $3,500 a month.

Every time interest rates increase by a quarter of a percent, your buying power decreases by about 3 percent.

What this means for buyers:
With prices moderating and interest rates slated to rise again, now is a good time to buy. If you’re betting on prices falling, you need to consider the strong possibility that an increase in interest rates would offset any potential price savings.

What this means for sellers:
Listing your home now means you will attract a larger buyer pool before interest rates rise.

How to Buy a Home When Interest Rates Are Rising

Mortgage rates have risen about half a percentage point since September. What does that mean for you if you’re buying a home now or plan to buy one soon?

For starters, don’t panic.

When you’re buying a home, the mortgage rate matters, but it shouldn’t monopolize your attention, says Robert Frick, corporate economist for Navy Federal Credit Union. “You shouldn’t focus on the rate and let that scare you into making a hasty decision about buying a house,” he says.

How rising rates affect your monthly payment

The average rate on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 4.54% on Feb. 16, 2018, according to NerdWallet’s daily rate survey. It averaged 3.99% on Sept. 26, 2017 — meaning it has gone up more than half a percentage point in less than five months.

While a half-point increase doesn’t have a major impact on the monthly payment, the added cost does add up over time. On a 30-year loan for $200,000, the monthly payment would be nearly $59 more at a 4.5% interest rate than at a 4% interest rate. That adds up to more than $21,000 over 30 years.

What to do when rates rise

Mortgage rate fluctuations have been catching home buyers off guard for generations. Your forebears have developed tried-and-true strategies to cope with rising rates. Here are some things you can do when mortgage rates trend higher:

No. 1: Lock your mortgage rate. With a mortgage rate lock, the lender promises a defined combo of interest rate and points. If you close the home loan by the specified date, the rate can’t go up. You can use this tactic after the lender has approved you for a mortgage for a specific house. Some lenders offer a one-time “float down” option allowing you to secure a lower interest rate if rates go down; this option is more common for construction loans and long-term rate locks.

No. 2: Buy “points” to reduce the interest rate. If you have the cash, you can pay for discount points — in effect, prepaying some of the interest in exchange for a lower mortgage rate. One point equals 1% of the loan amount. The discount you get for one point varies as mortgage rates fluctuate. But as a rule of thumb, paying one point often gives a rate cut of one-quarter of a percentage point.

No. 3: Revise your price range. A higher mortgage rate brings higher monthly payments. When you begin your home search, determine a range of interest rates that will still allow you to afford the type of home you want without stretching your budget past the point of reason. Or, rising rates might force you to adjust your home-price range downward. Start with this loan affordability calculator and click “Edit rate” on the right side.

Why rates are rising now

This recent rise in mortgage rates arrived in two stages:

The first happened in the weeks after the passage of tax reform in late December
The second happened Feb. 2, 2018, when the January employment report indicated that hourly wages had risen 2.9% compared with 12 months before
The tax cuts and the wage report were both regarded as inflationary, because when people have more money in their pockets, they tend to spend it, driving up prices. And higher inflation tends to bring higher interest rates for everything, including mortgages.

On top of that, futures traders expect the Federal Reserve to raise short-term interest rates at least two, if not three, times this year, which could exert upward pressure on long-term mortgage rates.

Frick says businesses and governments around the world are ramping up their borrowing. As they compete with one another to borrow money, they bid up interest rates. This upward pressure trickles down to consumers, who end up paying higher interest rates for everything from credit cards to mortgages.

Are higher rates the ‘new normal’?

Talk to any housing economist about mortgage rates, and you’ll hear that rates have been abnormally low in the decade since the housing crash.

“I remember in the mid-’90s, getting a 7% rate, being happy with that,” says Dean Baker, senior economist and co-founder of the Center for Economic and Policy Research. “The rates we’re looking at today are still, by any measure, pretty low. So it’s basically the economy getting back closer to normal.”

Frick says: “People have gotten kind of lulled into these low rates, and a lot of people think this is normal, but this is not normal. We’re returning to normal, and that’s still going to be a painful process because we’ve gotten used to low rates.”

Holden Lewis, NerdWallet

Buying A Home Is Now 38% Cheaper Than Renting

The results of the latest Rent vs. Buy Report from Trulia show that homeownership remains cheaper than renting with a traditional 30-year fixed rate mortgage in the 100 largest metro areas in the United States.

The updated numbers actually show that the range is an average of 17.4% less expensive in Honolulu (HI), all the way up to 53.2% less expensive in Miami & West Palm Beach (FL), and 37.7% nationwide!

Other interesting findings in the report include:
Interest rates have remained low, and even though home prices have appreciated around the country, they haven’t greatly outpaced rental appreciation.

Home prices would have to appreciate by a range of over 23% in Honolulu (HI), up to over 45% in Ventura County (CA), to reach the tipping point of renting being less expensive than buying.
Nationally, rates would have to reach 9.1%, a 145% increase over today’s average of 3.7%, for renting to be cheaper than buying. Rates haven’t been that high since January of 1995, according to Freddie Mac.
Bottom Line

Buying a home makes sense socially and financially. If you are one of the many renters out there who would like to evaluate your ability to buy this year, meet with a local real estate professional who can help you find your dream home.

~Courtesy “Keeping Current Matters”

The Cost of Waiting

The “Cost of Waiting to Buy” is defined as the additional funds it would take to buy a home if prices and interest rates were to increase over a period of time.
Freddie Mac predicts that interest rates will increase to 4.8% by this time next year, while home prices are predicted to appreciate by 4.8% according to CoreLogic.
Waiting until next year to buy could cost you thousands of dollars a year for the life of your mortgage!

The Perfect Storm for Home Sellers

Thinking of listing your home? Sellers today stand to benefit from a perfect storm of market conditions that are delivering the greatest possible return on investment.

Record-Low Inventory: Fewer than 1,600 single-family homes were on the market in King County last month, an all-time low.

Record High Prices: Prices are at historic highs, and are rising faster than anywhere else in the country.

So, why not just wait and see if prices go even higher?

Just like with the stock market, it’s impossible to time the housing market. However, experts have predicted price increases to slow this year, and prices here are already showing signs of moderating.

In addition, interest rates are expected to go up this year. A majority of the members of the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting board predict there will be three more increases coming in 2017. These increases will cause mortgage rates to rise, which means buyers will only qualify for less expensive homes. This reduced purchasing power starts slowing buyer demand.

It’s the perfect time to list your home. Are ready to get started?

I can prepare a valuation of your home based on current market conditions, walk you through the process, and answer any questions you may have.

Contact me for your free home valuation.