Western Washington Real Estate Market Update

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Washington State finished the year on a high with jobs continuing to be added across the market. Additionally, we are seeing decent growth in the area’s smaller markets, which have not benefitted from the same robust growth as the larger metropolitan markets.

Unemployment rates throughout the region continue to drop and the levels in the central Puget Sound region suggest that we are at full employment. In the coming year, I anticipate that we will see substantial income growth as companies look to recruit new talent and keep existing employees happy.

HOME SALES ACTIVITY

There were 19,745 home sales during the fourth quarter of 2016—up by a very impressive 13.4% from the same period in 2015, but 18.7% below the total number of sales seen in the third quarter of the year. (This is a function of seasonality and no cause for concern.)
Sales in Clallam County grew at the fastest rate over the past 12 months, with home sales up by 47%. There were also impressive sales increases in Grays Harbor and Thurston Counties. Jefferson County had a fairly modest decrease in sales.
The number of available listings continues to remain well below historic averages. The total number of homes for sale in the fourth quarter was down by 13.7% compared to the same period a year ago.
The key takeaway from this data is that 2017 will continue to be a seller’s market. We should see some improvement in listing activity, but it is highly likely that demand will exceed supply for another year.

The full report is continued here:  http://www.windermere.com/blogs/windermere/posts/western-washington-real-estate-market-update–9

Home Price Outlook for 2017

It doesn’t look like recent interest rate increases will cool the U.S. real estate market.

Nothing can chill the real estate sector in the U.S. like rising interest rates. So is the Federal Reserve’s expected move to boost borrowing costs likely to dent the housing market?

Don’t bet on it. Experts predict that housing prices will continue to rise in many markets around the country next year even as mortgage rates drift up. The Federal Open Market Committee — the panel at the central bank that sets monetary policy — will hold a two-day meeting next week, with most forecasters expecting 0.25 basis point increase in short-term rates. Market watchers expect the Fed to hike rates several times next year is the economy stays on its current course.

But that small initial increase, which would be the first upward tilt in rates since December of 2015, is unlikely to reduce demand for housing. Home prices have continued to rebound this year. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index posted a 6 percent gain in the third quarter on a year-over-year basis.

Economist Andres Carbacho-Burgos of Moody’s Analytics expects nationwide housing prices as measured by that index to rise an average of 4 percent in 2017. Steve Hovland of online real estate management firm HomeUnion projects a similar uptick, while noting that some markets that have seen have seen the sharpest price increases during the recovery, such as New York, Los Angeles and Austin, Texas, could see a dip.

Mortgage rates have already started to creep up as house hunters ponder the impact of an imminent Fed hike. “Since early November, you have had a significant jump in purchase mortgage applications,” Carbacho-Burgos said. “A lot of that has to do with the expectations effect. People think `Oh my God, interest rates are increasing and we better purchase now before mortgage interest rates go higher.’”

Despite that perception, borrowing costs remain exceptionally modest by historical standards, while the average mortgage payment around the U.S. is still significantly below its level before the housing crash, Capital Economics notes. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 4.04 percent, up two basis points over the last week, the lowest level they have been since 2014. Rates last month were 3.51 percent. That compares with an average of 6.41 percent since 1990, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

“Buyers that have committed to a home purchase are unlikely to be swayed by the increase in interest rates,” Hovland said in a statement. “In fact, the change in the monthly mortgage obligation is approximately $65 for a median-priced home. The lower end of the market can absorb that increase. However, sellers are going to need to bear some of the cost of capital increase at the top of the market.”

Another support for the housing sector is the U.S. economy, which continues to see modest growth. Unemployment in November fell to 4.6 percent, its lowest level in more than a decade. Wage growth, which has been stagnant for years, has also ticked up this year.

“The employment picture has brightened considerably,” Bob Walters, chief economist with Quicken Loans, said. “There is a ton of pent-up demand over the last eight, nine years.”

Millennials, America’s largest generation, are also starting to enter the housing market and in 2017 will make up roughly 40 percent of first-time home buyers, according to Hovland.

Still, finding an affordable home in many markets remains a challenge because of a lack of inventory, according to realtors’ associations in those markets. For people buying their first homes, “It’s very difficult to find a product for them that they can afford,” said Lane McCormack, president of the Atlanta Board of Realtors, adding that starter homes in her area can fetch $300,000 to $400,000.

Christopher Zoller, chairman-elect of the Miami Association of Realtors, said sellers of homes priced between $300,000 and $600,000 are getting multiple offers while sellers of luxury properties are having difficulty attracting buyers. “We see some buyer reluctance at the high-price end and we see some seller intransigence,” he said.

Tight credit conditions are also making it hard some house hunters to get a mortgage. Although average down payments are not much higher these days than in the past, lenders require borrowers to have good credit.

By JONATHAN BERR MONEYWATCH

Housing Market Righting Itself as Buyers, Brokers Get Creative

Housing around Western Washington is on an upward trajectory, but inadequate inventory “in the right prices and locations” makes for a “very difficult market for purchasers and brokers,” according to an executive with one multi-office real estate company.

New figures from Northwest Multiple Listing Service show inventory increased in May compared to a year ago, but brokers say competition is keen. “Multiple offers and escalation clauses occur on a regular basis for properties that are extremely well priced and in great condition,” reports Dick Beeson, principal managing broker at RE/MAX Professionals in Tacoma.

Mike Gain, a former chairman of the Northwest MLS board of directors, also commented on the bidding wars. “We are experiencing more multiple offers than I have experienced in my 35 years of practicing real estate in this marketplace,” stated Gain, the president and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Northwest Real Estate. “This is a very difficult market for purchasers, our agents and brokers. If we had inventory to handle the demand our pending and sold numbers would be greatly increased,” he believes, adding, “We desperately need good quality inventory.”

Last month’s pending sales topped the 10,000 mark for the first time in twelve months. The number of mutually accepted offers totaled 10,373, outgaining a year ago by 328 transactions for an increase of almost 3.3 percent. Last month’s total was the highest volume of pending sales since June 2006 when brokers tallied 10,448 transactions.

With demand outpacing supply in many parts of the region, brokers are noticing more creativity among competing parties. “Offer review deadlines have become pretty commonplace in this market, as have pre-inspections,” said OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate. He said some agents and buyers are getting even more aggressive by submitting their offer prior to the deadline.

Jacobi said there’s also an increase in the number of cash buyers, and buyers willing to waive their financing contingency, “making it even more difficult for the vast majority who don’t have this option.” With ongoing competition likely to continue, Jacobi expects agents and buyers to be “increasingly creative until the market becomes more balanced, which probably isn’t going to happen any time soon.”

MLS figures show months of inventory slipped to 3.33 from April’s figure of 3.46. In King County, supply stayed about even with April (1.78 months of inventory in May versus l.74 months in April).  Snohomish slipped from 2.47 months to 2.37. Four to six months is considered to be a balanced market.

Fewer sales closed last month compared to a year ago (down 2.2 percent), but prices increased. Compared to April, the number of completed sales in May jumped by 997 transactions for a gain of 16.1 percent. Brokers reported 7,187 closed sales of single family homes and condominiums last month with a median selling price of $285,000. That sales price reflects a 3.6 percent increase from the year-ago figure of $275,000.

For single family homes (excluding condos) the area-wide price rose 4.2 percent, increasing from $285,000 to $297,000. Condo prices jumped nearly 15% from the year-ago price of $200,000 to last month’s price of $229,900.

Brokers added 12,605 new listings to inventory during May, about 10 percent more than a year ago. At month end, the selection across the 21 counties served by Northwest MLS included 23,917 active listings. That total reflects a 9 percent increase from twelve months ago when buyers could choose from 21,943 homes and condominiums.

In several counties served by Northwest MLS distressed properties make up about 20 percent of the activity, according to an analysis by Beeson. His figures show one of every five homes that sold in Pierce, Thurston, Kitsap and Cowlitz counties was distressed, while in King County such properties accounted for only around 10 percent of the sales.

Beeson, a board member at Northwest MLS, expects distressed properties will continue to be an integral part of the market. As median prices continue to rise around Puget Sound, he believes the inventory of short sales will be reduced.

“The inventory of bank owned properties holds steady at twice the number of short sales,” Beeson reported, adding, “This probably will not change in the foreseeable future as banks have warehoused much of their ‘shadow inventory’ and are slowly bringing it on the market so as not to glut the market, and to help keep pricing levels up, which benefits them as well.”

Another MLS director, George Moorhead, characterized the market as “sluggish” in areas. Buyers are about “45 days later to the starting line” compared to patterns of the past three years. “Some areas are still doing extremely well and still seeing multiple offers, but not on the whole,” observed Moorhead, the managing broker at Bentley Properties in Bothell. Overall, he believes “the market is righting itself slowly and becoming healthy and sustainable.”

Snohomish anomaly
Inventory in Snohomish County jumped 43 percent compared to a year ago. Asked about the surge, Moorhead attributed much of it to an influx of new construction. The MLS database shows 406 of 2,206 listings of single family homes are classified as new construction. That’s about twice the number from a year ago. “The price points are some of the best in the market areas for size, style and overall location,” Moorhead stated.

Rosy outlook
Despite inventory shortages, Northwest MLS brokers were mostly upbeat about short-term activity:

• “Locally, the summer selling season can be the busiest time of the year. This year with the lack of inventory it is probably the best market sellers will ever experience,” suggested Mike Gain.
• “We anticipate the market remaining at modest levels of growth [in Snohomish County] and inventory levels continuing in a healthy range of seven to eight months instead of two to three months.”  — George Moorhead
• “Home buyers received a summer gift, just in time for the home buying season: interest rates have come down one third of a point from a month ago.” – J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO, John L. Scott Real Estate.
• “In almost every county, inventory increases since last year have brought a sigh of relief from many buyers . . . If interest rates continue to hold under 5 percent and the unemployment picture continues to improve or remain the same, we should see a moderate to strong market throughout the balance of 2014.” – Dick Beeson. Wilson urged sellers to make sure their home is exposed “to as many real estate brokers from as many real estate firms as possible to ensure all buyers in your area and price point have a chance to make an offer on your home.”~NW Multiple Listing Service
• Buyers also need to be prepared, Wilson suggested. In addition to being fully approved for financing a mortgage before making an offer, buyers need to be mindful that their offer “may not be the only one being tendered to a seller” and be poised to respond.
• MLS spokespeople encouraged potential sellers to consider listing now. “Now is a great time for move up sellers/buyers who can sell their homes quickly today and secure another at today’s prices and today’s low interest rates,” Gain suggested. He also noted the majority of homeowners have experienced significant gains in their equity over the past two years. “Sellers who took their homes off the market in the down market can now get the prices they were wanting when they made their decisions to rent them. The prices are back and the homes will sell,” he emphasized.

~NW Multiple Listing Service

Five reasons to buy a home now

Based on prices, mortgage rates and soaring rents, there may have never been a better time in real estate history to purchase a home than right now. Here are five major reasons purchasers should consider buying.

1. Competition is about to Increase

Every spring a surge of prospective purchasers enter the housing market. Like you, they will want the best home available in the best location at the best price. They will be competing with you for the ‘steals’ in the market. Don’t miss the opportunity to get that ‘once-in-a-lifetime’ buy available today that no longer be available as the market heats up..

1. Price Increases Are on the Horizon

Nationally, home prices are projected to appreciate by 4.5% in 2014 and by over 19% from now until 2018. First home buyers will probably pay more both in price and interest rate if they wait until the spring. Even if you are a move-up buyer, it will wind-up costing you more in net dollars as the home you will buy will appreciate at approximately the same rate as the house you are in now.

1. Owning a Home Helps Create Family Wealth

Whether you rent or you own the home you are living in, you are paying a mortgage. Either you are paying your mortgage or your landlord’s. The Federal Reserve, in a recent study, revealed that the net worth of the average homeowner is 30 times greater than that of a renter.

1. Interest Rates Are Projected to Rise

The Mortgage Bankers Association, the National Association of Realtors, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae have all projected that the 30-year mortgage interest rate will be over 5% by the spring of 2015. That is an increase of almost ¾ of a point over current rates.

1. Buy Low, Sell High

Most would all agree that, when investing, we want to buy at the lowest price possible and hope to sell at the highest price. Housing can create family wealth as long as we follow this simple principle. Today, real estate is selling ‘low’ compared to where it will be next year. It’s time to buy.

~ KCM Blog

2013 MLS Annual Review

Brokers report nearly $25.5 billion in 2013 sales

Members of Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported 75,517 closed sales during 2013, surpassing the 2012 volume by around 11,000 transactions for an increase of nearly 17 percent. Measured by dollars, last year’s sales of single family homes and condominiums were valued at nearly $25.5 billion to outgain the previous year by more than $5.5 billion (up 27.4 percent).

Last year’s completed sales included 65,122 single family homes and 10,395 condominiums, as tallied by nearly 21,000 real estate brokers in the 21 counties that make up the Northwest MLS service area.  The total units and dollar volume are the best since 2007 when members registered 82,197 sales valued at $32.3 billion.

The area-wide median price for last year’s sales was $270,000, improving on the previous year’s figure of $245,000 (up 10.2 percent). A comparison by county shows median sales prices ranged from $118,750 in Pacific County to $372,000 in King County.

Prices for single family homes (excluding condominiums) also rose 10.2 percent from 2012, increasing from $255,000 to $281,000. Condo prices jumped 15.3 percent, rising from the 2012 figure of $175,200 to last year’s median price of $202,000.

By one measure, buyers who shopped during 2013 had a bigger selection as members added more than 104,000 listings to inventory during the year. That was an improvement over 2012 when members added 91,359 new listings. However, brisk sales meant the total number of active listings, which averaged 21,946 during 2013, fell below the previous year’s average of 24,604.

During 2013, the area-wide supply, as measured by months of inventory, ranged from a low of 1.95 in March to 3.68 in December. Industry watchers tend to use a 4-to-6 month range as an indicator of a balanced market, favoring neither buyers nor sellers. Supply tended to be tightest in King and Snohomish counties.

Further evidence of a housing recovery is reflected in high-end sales. Northwest MLS members reported 1,621 sales of single family homes priced at $1 million or more, up 45.2 percent from the 2012 total of 1,116 such sales. Condos priced at $1 million and up accounted for another 137 sales, about the same number as 2012 (138 sales).

The highest-priced single family home that sold during 2013 by a member of Northwest MLS was a property in Medina that fetched $9.75 million. A penthouse in downtown Seattle that sold for $6.2 million topped the condo list.

Among other highlights in its annual compilation of statistics, Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported:

• Single family homes accounted for 86 percent of last year’s residential sales.
• Nearly half (49 percent) of last year’s single family home sales were 3-bedroom      homes. More than three-fourths (77 percent) of condos that sold had 2      bedrooms.
• The median price for a 3-bedroom home that sold in 2013 was $250,000. A      comparison by county shows the median price for this size home ranged from      $128,000 in Pacific County to $450,000 in San Juan County.
• Of the condo sales, about two-thirds (64.1 percent) were located in King      County. Within that county, the Eastside edged out Seattle for the largest share (39.7 percent versus 37 percent).
• Last year’s sales included 8,298 newly built single family homes that sold for a median price of $325,000, and 846 condos that sold for a median price of      $350,214.
• A 10-year comparison of median prices of single family homes shows prices      peaked in most counties in 2007. In 2013, Grant County selling prices returned to 2007 levels, Okanogan prices were at 96.7 percent of 2007 prices, and King County prices were at 91.2 percent of 2007 prices. Other counties have not yet reached those levels, but most are experiencing steady gains.
• Prices vary widely among school districts. An analysis of some of the largest      districts in the MLS market area shows single family homes on Mercer Island have the highest prices, followed by homes in the Bellevue, Issaquah, Lake Washington and Bainbridge school districts.

Why 2014 is a Good Year to Buy a Home

If you didn’t buy a home in 2013, you may be kicking yourself now. Home prices climbed nationally an average of 13.6 percent in the past 12 months, according to Tuesday’s release of the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index.

Don’t make the same mistake in 2014, suggests Benjamin Weinstock, real estate attorney and partner at the firm Ruskin Moscou Faltischek in Uniondale, N.Y.

Market forecasters predict that 2014 will be another year of gains for the real estate market, even though the rapid pace of sales in 2013 cooled off a bit at the end of the year. On Dec. 30, The National Association of Realtors said its pending home sales index, based on contracts signed last month, rose 0.2 percent in November, below the 1 percent rise forecast.

Home prices are expected to rise about 5 percent next year, says Weinstock. Higher mortgage rates will dampen the pace of both sales and price gains, but not bring them to a halt. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage is expected to rise from 4.5 percent to 5 percent in the next year.

Even aside from expected price gains, buying a home is almost always a good investment in the long run, says Weinstock. Tax benefits are not to be overlooked.

“When one rents, at the end of the year he or she has a pile of 12 cancelled rent checks,” Weinstock says. “However, the homeowner has a pile of 12 cancelled mortgage checks that are nearly fully tax deductible in most cases.”

~Amey Stone, CBS Money Watch

The Gardner Report, 2014

The Gardner Report, 2014

Now is the time of year when many prognosticators – like myself – start to gaze into the future and attempt to see what the year has in store.

As I look in the rear-view mirror, 2013 can be considered another year of recovery with all major asset classes performing well, admittedly with no little amount of assistance from the debt and equity markets, as well as overall improved confidence in the U.S. economy.

So what am I seeing for this year? Here are my thoughts.

Employment
It was certainly pleasing to see that in the Fall of 2013 – after five long and grueling years – employment in the Seattle metro area managed to return all of the jobs that were lost during the recession. The area shed over 124,000 positions during the recession, but has managed to not only claw all these back, but the current employment level is now 6,200 jobs higher than the prior peak. (Data as of November 2013.)

Although this is certainly positive for the market, I do have a word of caution. Somewhat counter-intuitively, employment growth in the metro area turned negative in the Fall of 2013 and, while this may be just an anomaly, it has certainly put a damper on my exuberance!

That said, I still see 2014 as a year when we will add to our total employment base, but the pace of growth will likely taper. I am looking at total employment rising by 2.5%, adding around 35,500 new payroll jobs to the Seattle metro area.

With this growth, the unemployment rate should contract from the current level of 5.6% to 4.8%.

Ownership Housing
Single family resale housing prices bottomed out at the end of 2011 at $340,000. By the end of 2013, the average sale price had risen by 28% to $436,000 which is encouraging; however, this is still 19% below the peak seen in the summer of 2007.

I anticipate that 2014 will continue to bring price growth with resale single family home prices growing by 5 percent – essentially matching the rise seen in 2013 for the combined metro area. Modestly greater price gains will be seen in King County than in Snohomish County, but will still be in the single digits. This slower growth model will be a result of rising interest rates as well as more tapered expectations from sellers. We saw list prices drop through the second half of last year – a necessary move as the relationship between average list price and average sale price was getting strained. As such, average sale price growth slowed and this will continue to be the case in 2014.

Listing activity, although 18 percent higher in 2013 than in 2012, is still not where I want it to be and I am hoping that this year will provide more choice for home buyers. There remains nagging concerns over the so called “shadow inventory”, but I maintain the position that this will not negatively impact aggregated values.

On the new construction front, I believe that we will see home builders support the market with the introduction of additional inventory; however, concerns over rising land values and construction costs will have many remaining wary. Finished lot values almost doubled in 2013 which has caused a somewhat bifurcated market with the national builders holding a significant advantage over the smaller local builders as they have the wherewithal to take down these expensive lots.

Additionally land constraints will continue to influence price and this will continue to be an issue in the new home industry.

Looking at the condominium market, we will continue to see a reemergence, but it is unlikely that we will see any additions to the inventory above the two projects currently under construction. Financing in this world remains tight even though demand for new condos appears to have returned.

Mortgage Interest Rates
Mortgage rates are already on the rise and we are sure to see this continue through 2014 as the Federal Reserve continues to taper its purchase of mortgage-backed securities and treasury bills. The increase in rates will not, however, be abrupt, but rather gradual through the year but I would not be surprised to see the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit 5.4% by years’ end.

Before we all start to gesticulate madly that this is the end of the world, let us not forget that interest rates were substantially higher in the past (9% in 1990 and close to 20% in 1982!)

This does, however, add further credence to my belief that home price growth will taper this year as affordability — especially for first-time buyers — gets tested.

he time of year when many prognosticators – like myself – start to gaze into the future and attempt to see what the year has in store.

As I look in the rear-view mirror, 2013 can be considered another year of recovery with all major asset classes performing well, admittedly with no little amount of assistance from the debt and equity markets, as well as overall improved confidence in the U.S. economy.

So what am I seeing for this year? Here are my thoughts.

Employment
It was certainly pleasing to see that in the Fall of 2013 – after five long and grueling years – employment in the Seattle metro area managed to return all of the jobs that were lost during the recession. The area shed over 124,000 positions during the recession, but has managed to not only claw all these back, but the current employment level is now 6,200 jobs higher than the prior peak. (Data as of November 2013.)

Although this is certainly positive for the market, I do have a word of caution. Somewhat counter-intuitively, employment growth in the metro area turned negative in the Fall of 2013 and, while this may be just an anomaly, it has certainly put a damper on my exuberance!

That said, I still see 2014 as a year when we will add to our total employment base, but the pace of growth will likely taper. I am looking at total employment rising by 2.5%, adding around 35,500 new payroll jobs to the Seattle metro area.

With this growth, the unemployment rate should contract from the current level of 5.6% to 4.8%.

 

How 2014 Will be Different

Trulia’s Housing Predictions: How 2014 Will be Different

Next year looks to be the year of the repeat home buyer, as worsening affordability discourages first timers and investors; also, the buying process will be less frenzied. Hot markets to watch are primarily in the South, Plains, and Mountain states. Rental activity will swing back toward urban apartments, away from single-family homes.

The housing market continued its uneven recovery in 2013 and will enter 2014 closer to normal than it was a year earlier. Consumer optimism is climbing back: in Trulia’s latest survey, 74% of Americans said that homeownership was part of achieving their personal American Dream – the highest level since January 2010. Even among young adults (18-34 year olds), many of whom struggled through the recession and are still living with their parents, 73% said homeownership was part of achieving their personal American Dream, up from 65% in August 2011. Rising prices over the past two years have been great news for homeowners, especially for those who had been underwater, and the real estate industry has benefited from both higher prices and more sales volume.

At the same time, the effects of the recession and housing bust still sting: the barriers to homeownership remain high, and a few markets – mostly in Florida – still have a foreclosure overhang. Plus, the housing recovery itself brings its own challenges, including declining affordability and localized bubble worries, especially in southern California.

Barring any economic crises, the housing market should continue to normalize. Here are 5 ways that the 2014 housing market will be different from 2013:

1. Housing Affordability Worsens. Buying a home will be more expensive in 2014 than in 2013. Although home-price increases should slow from this year’s unsustainably fast pace (see #4, below), prices will still rise faster than both incomes and rents. Also, mortgage rates will be higher in 2014 than in 2013, thanks both to the strengthening economy (rates tend to rise in recoveries) and to Fed tapering, whenever it comes. The rising cost of homeownership will add insult to injury in America’s least affordable markets: in October 2013, for instance, 25% or less of the homes listed for sale in San Francisco, Orange County, Los Angeles, and New York were affordable to middle class households. Nonetheless, buying will remain cheaper than renting. As of September 2013, buying was 35% cheaper than renting nationally, and buying beat renting in all of the 100 largest metros. However, prices and mortgage rates might rise enough to tip the math in favor of renting in a couple of housing markets – starting with San Jose.
2. The Home-Buying Process Gets Less Frenzied. Home buyers in 2014 might kick themselves for not buying in 2013 or 2012, when mortgage rates and prices were lower, but they’ll take some comfort in the fact that the process won’t be as frenzied. There will be more inventory on the market next year, partly due to new construction, but primarily because higher prices will encourage more homeowners to sell – including those who are no longer underwater.  Also, buyers looking for a home for themselves will face less competition from investors who are scaling back their home purchases (see #3, below). Finally, mortgages should be easier to get because higher rates have slashed refinancing activity and pushed some banks to ramp up their purchase lending. Moreover, the new mortgage rules coming into effect in 2014 will give banks better clarity about the legal and financial risks they face with different types of mortgages, hopefully making them more willing to lend. All in all, more inventory, less competition from investors, and more mortgage credit should all make the buying process less frenzied than in 2013 – for those who can afford to buy.
3. Repeat Buyers Take Center Stage. 2013 was the year of the investor, but 2014 will be the year of the repeat home buyer. Investors buy less as prices rise: higher prices mean that the return on investment falls, and there’s less room for future price appreciation. Who will fill the gap? Not first-time buyers: saving for a down payment and having a stable job remain significant burdens, and declining affordability is also a big hurdle for first-timers. Who’s left? Repeat buyers: they’re less discouraged by rising prices than either investors or first-time buyers because the home they already own has also risen in value. Also, the down payment is less of a challenge for repeat buyers if they have equity in their current home
4. How Much Prices Slow Matters Less Than Why And Where. Prices won’t rise as much in 2014 as in 2013. The latest Trulia Price Monitor showed us that asking home prices rose year-over-year 12.1% nationally and more than 20% in 10 of the 100 largest metros. But it also revealed that these price gains are already slowing sharply in the hottest metros. How much prices slow matters less than why. If prices are slowing for the right reasons, great: growing inventory, fading investor activity, and rising mortgage rates are all natural price-slowing changes to expect at this stage of the recovery. But prices could slow for unhealthy reasons, too: if we have another government shutdown or more debt-ceiling brinksmanship, a drop in consumer confidence could hurt housing demand and home prices. Where prices change matters, too. Slowing prices are welcome news in overvalued or unaffordable markets, but markets where prices are significantly undervalued and borrowers are still underwater would be better off with a year or two of unsustainably fast price gains.
5. Rental Action Swings Back Toward Urban Apartments. Throughout the recession and recovery, investors bought homes and rented them out, sometimes to people who lost another (or the same!) home to foreclosure. In fact, the number of rented single-family homes leapt by 32% during this period. Going into 2014, though, investors are buying fewer single-family homes; loosening credit standards might allow more single-family renters to become owners again; and fewer owners are losing homes to foreclosures to begin with – all of which mean that the single-family rental market should cool. At the same time, multifamily accounts for an unusually high share of new construction, which means more urban apartment rentals should come onto the market in 2014. Urban apartments will be the first stop for many of the young adults who find jobs and move out of their parents’ homes. In short, 2014 should mean more supply and demand for urban apartment rentals, but slowing supply and demand for single-family rentals. Ironically, economic recovery means that the overall homeownership rate will probably decline, as some young adults form their own households as renters. Still, the shift in rental activity from suburban single-family to urban apartments would be yet another sign of housing recovery.

What other reasons will cause 2014 be different? New local markets will take the spotlight. Our top 10 markets to watch are entering 2014 with strong fundamentals, including recent job growth and longer-term economic success, as well as recent construction activity typical of vibrant markets. They are, in alphabetical order:

• Bethesda-Rockville-Frederick, MD
• Charlotte, NC-SC
• Denver, CO
• Fort Worth, TX
• Nashville, TN
• Oklahoma City, OK
• Raleigh, NC
• Salt Lake City, UT
• Seattle, WA
• Tulsa, OK

Why are so many of the high-profile markets of 2013 missing from our list? We ruled out markets that were more than a little overvalued according to our latest Bubble Watch, which eliminated most metros in Texas and coastal California. We also struck markets with a large foreclosure inventory (thanks for the data, RealtyTrac), like most of Florida. Our 10 markets to watch, therefore, should have strong activity in 2014 with few headwinds.

~ Jed Kolko, Chief Economist, Trulia

It’s the most wonderful time of the year… to sell a house? There’s always that question whether or not you should keep your house on the market for the holidays. You figure that potential home buyers will be preoccupied with buying gifts, planning parties, cooking meals, and visiting relatives; the last thing on their mind is searching for and purchasing a new home, right? For this reason, many home sellers choose to temporarily remove their home from listing, then wait until the new year to relist.

Before you hold off on listing your home until the new year, consider the benefits of listing your home for sale during the holidays, such as:

• Many home sellers either hold off from selling or take a break from selling during the holidays. Inevitably, the amount of listings on the market drop down, which means less competition for your home. With less competition, you could potentially sell your home faster, for more money. Once the market comes back up in the spring time, a lot of sellers will list their homes all at once for lower prices, which may drive the whole market down.

• Home buyers are generally the most motivated during the holiday season, greatly aiding sellers. Although there will be less buyers looking at homes this time of year, the buyers who do look are more serious about closing. “While the traffic is down, the buyers who are out there — when it’s soggy and dark at 4:45 p.m. — they’re not just poking around for the fun of it,” said Billy Grippo, a broker for Windermere Cronin and Caplan Realty Group. “They’re wanting to buy a house.”

• Looking back on statistics, interest rates tend to drop the most at the end of the year. “If we look historically at interest rates, cyclically we’ve seen drops every December through January,” says Rich Hayden, senior loan officer for Home First Mortgage Corp. “While rates are now at all-time lows, we could dip even lower,” he says. Tyler agrees, “Interest rates have to come up sometime but it won’t be during the holidays.”

• Many people purposely choose to purchase a home before the new year to receive a tax write off. Home buyers who close before the end of the year could be eligible for tax credits, such as deductions for home mortgage interest, real estate taxes, and PMI premiums.

• Large companies normally transfer employees in January. Those relocating usually need to buy a house right away and simply cannot wait.

• In the winter months, homes typically show better. The decorations, smell of cookies baking, and a roaring fireplace all give your home a “warm and cozy” feeling. Just make sure you don’t cover up your homes best features with too much holiday decor. Stick to tasteful and simple decorations and proper staging techniques for the holidays.

• A lot of companies give their employees time off work for the holiday season, which means potential buyers have more time for showings.

• While all the malls and retail stores may be packed, Lenders and title companies aren’t as busy and can process loans faster. “November and December are historically slower months in the mortgage business, so things get done faster,” says Brad Walbrun, a mortgage consultant for A and N Mortgage Services.

• Most become so consumed in buying gifts for their friends and family, that they completely overlook all the holiday sales and specials on home appliances and hardware. Remodeling, decorating, appliance installation and other home services become more available and at less of a premium.

• Late spring and summer are usually thought of as the best times to put a home on the market because buyer demand builds steadily through spring. If you sell your home in the winter, you’ll have your pick of tons of houses for sale in the spring time.

Just because it’s cold outside doesn’t mean the whole housing market comes to a freeze during the holidays!

~showingsuite.com

King Co median price up 15% over year ago

The pattern was repeated in Snohomish and Pierce counties: Median prices were $286,250 in  Snohomish and $222,000 in Pierce, with double-digit appreciation over the year, according to the  Multiple Listing Service.

The median price of single-family homes sold in King County last month rose to $426,000, a 15 percent increase over the year.

After a remarkable frenzy of home buying in early summer sent the median price to $434,000 in July, the highest level in five years, October’s activity showed a more balanced market, with more inventory for sale.

Buyers closed on 2,187 homes, 10 percent more than in the previous October, the Northwest Multiple Listing Service (MLS) reported Tuesday.

While extremely tight inventory drove bidding wars in spring, October was the first time this year that inventory of single family homes was higher than a year earlier. In King County, there were 4,575 single family homes listed, 6 percent more than a year earlier. In the condominium market, there were 1,133 units listed, 8 percent more than a year ago.

The Eastside, as usual, had the highest median price in King County: It was $575,377, up 14 percent from a year ago. Southwest King County had the lowest median price at $240,000, about 7 percent higher over the year.

The median price was $286,250 in Snohomish County and $222,000 in Pierce County, with double-digit appreciation over the year, according to the MLS.

Pending sales slipped to 2,579, down almost 4 percent from a year earlier, perhaps related to the federal government’s partial shutdown from Oct. 1-16. Pending sales are where the shutdown’s impact would have shown up, but it’s hard to tease that out from other possible causes, said Glenn Crellin, associate director of research at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington.

“I’m very encouraged by the fact that listings are increasing gradually,” he said. Regionally, inventory remains tight: King, Snohomish and Pierce counties all have less than three months’ supply, the MLS reported.

A balanced market generally has enough supply for four to six months. “It still looks like a potential housing shortage in Puget Sound come 2015 if building doesn’t increase,” Dick Beeson, principal managing broker for RE/MAX Professionals in Tacoma, said in a statement. Mike Gain, president and CEO of Prudential Northwest Realty Associates, said the shutdown “definitely hurt consumer  confidence” and caused would-be buyers to pause.

~Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Times