Seattle home inventory is even lower than this time last year

Heading into 2017, the number of homes on the market in the Seattle metropolitan area had dropped 10 percent from the previous year. Now, at that same time in 2018, inventory is even lower, dropping an additional 19 percent from this time last year, according to a report by real estate group Zillow.

In the metropolitan area, which includes Pierce and Snohomish counties, that inventory drop drove bidding wars in 2017; per Zillow, 52.4 percent of home sales ended up above asking. The report speculates that with an even bigger inventory crunch, that’s not expected to stop anytime soon.

Initial listing prices have grown, too—not a huge surprise to anyone who’s been watching home values for the past several years. Specifically, Seattle-area homes saw a year-over-year increase of 13 percent, with a median home value of $472,900 for the whole metro. (In the Seattle city limits, that number is, of course, much bigger; Zillow estimates $727,400.)

As prices have grown, sales times have shrunk to less than half what they were in 2010. Average days on the market in the metro was 51 days in 2017, per Zillow, compared to 58 in 2016 or 114 in 2010.

The bottom line: Zillow’s numbers point an exaggerated version of the same this year, with a cutthroat market, rising sales costs, and not enough homes to go around.

Sarah Anne Lloyd, Curbed Seattle

Homebuilders shrug off higher mortgage rates, stay optimistic on economic boost from tax cuts

Tax cuts are still making homebuilders feel better, even as mortgage rates rise to the highest level in more than four years.

Builder confidence was unchanged in February from the prior month, remaining at 72 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). Anything above 50 is considered positive sentiment.

The index is up from 65 in February 2017 and hit a cyclical high of 74 last December, just as the Republican tax cut plan was being passed.

“Builders are excited about the pro-business political climate that will strengthen the housing market and support overall economic growth,” said NAHB chairman Randy Noel, a custom home builder from LaPlace, LA.

“However, they need to manage supply-side construction hurdles, such as shortages of labor and lots and building material price increases,” he added.

Future sales expectations appear to be driving builder confidence.

“With ongoing job creation, increasing owner-occupied household formation, and a tight supply of existing home inventory, the single-family housing sector should continue to strengthen at a gradual but consistent pace,” said NAHB chief cconomist Robert Dietz.

One headwind for builders, however, is rising mortgage rates. Mortgage applications to purchase a newly built home jumped 18 percent in January year-over-year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, but rates moved even higher in the first two weeks of February.

The average rate on the 30-year fixed is now up more than 50 basis points since the beginning of the year. Not only do higher rates translate to less purchasing power for buyers, they also make it harder for some buyers on the margins of good credit to qualify for a home loan.

Builders are benefiting from the severe shortage of existing homes for sale, but new construction comes at a premium. Buyers may have rushed in in January, fearing rates would rise even more, which they did. If rates continue to move higher, some buyers will be priced out.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Midwest rose two points to 72, the South increased one point to 74, the West remained unchanged at 81, and Northeast fell two points to 56.

~Diana Olick, CNBC

Home Buyers Still Competing for Sparse Inventory in Western Washington, Driving Up Prices – Especially for Sought-After Condominiums

“The Seattle area real estate market hasn’t skipped a beat with pent-up demand from buyers is stronger than ever,” remarked broker John Deely in reacting to the latest statistics from Northwest Multiple Listing Service. The report on January activity shows a slight year-over-year gain in pending sales, a double-digit increase in prices, and continued shortages of inventory.

“Sellers that have put their properties on the market early this year have less competition and are seeing multiple offers. Open houses are experiencing heavy traffic with hundreds of potential buyers attending,” reported Deely.

Of 23 counties served by Northwest MLS, eight counties, including three in the Puget Sound region (King, Kitsap and Snohomish), reported fewer pending sales than a year ago. In King County, where acute inventory shortages exist in many neighborhoods, pending sales dropped 7.5 percent and closings dropped 18.5 percent.

“The decline in sales last month can’t be blamed on the holidays, weather or football. It’s simply due to the ongoing shortage of housing that continues to plague markets throughout Western Washington,” said OB Jacobi, the president of Windermere Real Estate. The number of total active listings at month end stood at 8,037 homes and condos, down nearly 17.6 percent from a year ago. Measured by months of supply, there was only about 1.5 months overall, well below the 4-to-6 month level many industry experts use as a gauge of a balanced market.

Condo inventory is especially tight in Snohomish County (0.8 months of supply) and King County (0.92 months). System-wide there is under a month’s supply (0.93 months). For the four-county Puget Sound region, there were only 427 active condo listings at month end, down almost 31 percent from a year ago.

Despite the sparse selection, brokers expect inventory to improve.

“I actually believe 2018 will bring us moderately more listings, which should help offset the growing demand that continues to result from the area’s strong economy,” remarked Jacobi.

“The month of March can’t come soon enough for home buyers,” said J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate. “In March, the number of new listings will bump up substantially from the low number of new listings typical for winter months. Better selection will start in March as we enter the spring housing season,” Scott predicts.

In the meantime, Scott reported “a multiple-offer everything, virtually sold out market” in all price ranges close to job centers and in the more affordable and mid-price ranges in surrounding counties. “Sellers are receiving premium pricing and home buyers are pouncing on each new listing,” he added.

Prices continue to rise in all but a few counties, even as the volume of closed sales fell about 9.3 percent. For January’s 5,325 closed sales, the median price was $363,500, a jump of about 11 percent from the year-ago figure of $327,500. Twelve counties reported double-digit spikes.

Within the four-county Puget Sound region, King County had the largest year-over-year gain. Prices for homes and condos combined shot up 20.3 percent in that county, rising from $475,000 to $571,250. Pierce County reported a jump of 15 percent, followed by Snohomish County at about 12.2 percent and Kitsap County at nearly 3.5 percent.

The depleted supply of condos meant premium prices. Area-wide the median price for last month’s completed transactions rose nearly 18.6 percent, from $269,900 to $320,000. Snohomish County’s condo prices surged nearly 25.5 percent, followed by King County at nearly 22.6 percent.

Some brokers expect the hefty price gains to ease.

“As interest rates rise, the rate of price increases will slow down,” predicts Northwest MLS director Dick Beeson, principal managing broker at RE/MAX Professionals in Gig Harbor. Despite this expectation, he believes sparse supply and the area’s appeal both nationally and internationally will mean ongoing competition and multiple offer situations.

The luxury market is also off to a quick start in 2018. “Close to job centers, the luxury market is gaining positive momentum due to the wealth effect of the stock market, the strength of the U.S. economy, and homebuyers from the Pacific Rim, especially China,” noted Lennox Scott.

Northwest MLS figures show sales of homes selling for $2 million or more are far outpacing year-ago activity. Last month, member-brokers reported selling 55 residences at this price threshold. That’s up 66 percent from the same month a year ago when brokers sold 33 such homes.

~Northwest Multiple Listing Service

What First-Time Home Buyers Need to Know

My team and I regularly come in contact with first-time homebuyers looking for some guidance. The prospect of buying your first home can be an anxiety-inducing one, especially if you don’t know where to start. I’ve spent my career helping thousands of people find the perfect home, so I’m happy to shed some light on the subject for those new to the process.

Patience is key.

Even after you spend hours searching through listings and going to showings, your journey is far from over. Getting a mortgage, having the home inspected and going through the closing process all take time. General wisdom suggests that the process could last from 30-90 days, but that depends on a lot of extenuating factors.

The neighborhood you choose is important.

We believe the neighborhood you live in is just as important as the home you live in. When you make a purchase based solely on the number of bedrooms and bathrooms or square footage, you’re missing out on the lifestyle component of your new home. Where you live will determine not only obvious factors like where your children go to school and how much you pay in taxes, but it also determines more nuanced factors, like how you spend your weekends. Spend time in an area before deciding to buy there, and see if you can really imagine yourself living there on a day-to-day basis.

Have your documentation ready.

Keeping everything digitally organized — rather than trying to keep track of a stack of papers — will help immensely. Have pay stub statements, proof of assets and any loan or credit card debt documentation readily available. Expect to present more paperwork than you might think they need to see. Like a Boy Scout, the key here is to always be prepared!

Be flexible.

One sentiment that almost all of the homeowners we asked expressed is just that: the importance of being flexible. You may have a list of features that make up your perfect home but ultimately discover that you are unable to find all of those features within your budget. Know which “must-haves” you’re willing to compromise on and which ones you really need. If a short commute is most important to you, you may be willing to sacrifice an extra bathroom or granite countertops to be closer to work.

Follow guidelines.

In other words, don’t buy beyond your means. Deferring principal payments in order to get into a bigger home is often a risky proposition that can lead to financial strain. Work out a budget that’s realistic, and then stick to it. Not sure how much house you can actually afford? NerdWallet provides a calculator to help you determine that based on location.

Shop around.

Like any other major purchase, it’s important when buying a home to weigh your mortgage options. Different banks may offer different rates, so getting a wide range of offers can save you money. Planning ahead is your friend in this scenario — as soon as you think you may be interested in buying a home, start the mortgage process. This will also help you determine how much you can feasibly afford.

Don’t let fear stop you.

There’s no doubt that the home-buying process can be daunting — and for first-time buyers, the uncertainty can lead to dread. You will experience a range of emotions in the pursuit of finding your perfect home, but it will be worthwhile when you finally settle in.

At the end of the day, buying your first home will be an intensive process, but it doesn’t need to be a scary one. If you go in with a strong plan and know your facts, you’ll avoid making the wrong choice or missing out on a great deal.

~Bill Ness, Forbes Community Voice

What First-Time Home Buyers Need to Know

My team and I regularly come in contact with first-time homebuyers looking for some guidance. The prospect of buying your first home can be an anxiety-inducing one, especially if you don’t know where to start. I’ve spent my career helping thousands of people find the perfect home, so I’m happy to shed some light on the subject for those new to the process.

Patience is key.

Even after you spend hours searching through listings and going to showings, your journey is far from over. Getting a mortgage, having the home inspected and going through the closing process all take time. General wisdom suggests that the process could last from 30-90 days, but that depends on a lot of extenuating factors.

The neighborhood you choose is important.

We believe the neighborhood you live in is just as important as the home you live in. When you make a purchase based solely on the number of bedrooms and bathrooms or square footage, you’re missing out on the lifestyle component of your new home. Where you live will determine not only obvious factors like where your children go to school and how much you pay in taxes, but it also determines more nuanced factors, like how you spend your weekends. Spend time in an area before deciding to buy there, and see if you can really imagine yourself living there on a day-to-day basis.

Have your documentation ready.

Keeping everything digitally organized — rather than trying to keep track of a stack of papers — will help immensely. Have pay stub statements, proof of assets and any loan or credit card debt documentation readily available. Expect to present more paperwork than you might think they need to see. Like a Boy Scout, the key here is to always be prepared!

Be flexible.

One sentiment that almost all of the homeowners we asked expressed is just that: the importance of being flexible. You may have a list of features that make up your perfect home but ultimately discover that you are unable to find all of those features within your budget. Know which “must-haves” you’re willing to compromise on and which ones you really need. If a short commute is most important to you, you may be willing to sacrifice an extra bathroom or granite countertops to be closer to work.

Follow guidelines.

In other words, don’t buy beyond your means. Deferring principal payments in order to get into a bigger home is often a risky proposition that can lead to financial strain. Work out a budget that’s realistic, and then stick to it. Not sure how much house you can actually afford? NerdWallet provides a calculator to help you determine that based on location.

Shop around.

Like any other major purchase, it’s important when buying a home to weigh your mortgage options. Different banks may offer different rates, so getting a wide range of offers can save you money. Planning ahead is your friend in this scenario — as soon as you think you may be interested in buying a home, start the mortgage process. This will also help you determine how much you can feasibly afford.

Don’t let fear stop you.

There’s no doubt that the home-buying process can be daunting — and for first-time buyers, the uncertainty can lead to dread. You will experience a range of emotions in the pursuit of finding your perfect home, but it will be worthwhile when you finally settle in.

At the end of the day, buying your first home will be an intensive process, but it doesn’t need to be a scary one. If you go in with a strong plan and know your facts, you’ll avoid making the wrong choice or missing out on a great deal.

~Bill Ness, Forbes Community Voice