Home prices: Biggest rise in more than 2 years

Home prices are up for the 2nd straight quarter, the biggest year-over-year increase in more than two years.

In another sign of a housing market rebound, home prices posted the biggest percentage gain in more than two years in the third quarter, according to the closely followed S&P/Case-Shiller index.

The 3.6% increase from a year earlier is more than three times the rise in the previous quarter and was the biggest jump in prices since the second quarter of 2010. But that 2010 rise was much more of a temporary blip caused by a homebuyer’s tax credit of up to $8,000 on homes purchased in late 2009 and early 2010.

This latest rise comes as the housing market has shown numerous other signs of recovery in recent months. The rebound is spurred by a combination of record low mortgage rates, an improving jobs market and a drop in foreclosures to a five-year low, reducing the supply of distressed homes available. There is also a tighter supply of both new and previously owned homes on the market.

The improvement in housing market fundamentals have helped to lift the pace of bothhome sales and home building.

Dean Baker, the co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research who was one of the earliest economists to warn about the housing bubble and the trouble that lay ahead, said this recovery in the housing market should lead to some sustained housing price increases in the coming years.

“I’ve been an optimist as of late,” he said. “Some think it’ll get back to bubble prices and that’s crazy. But we’ll probably do better than inflation for the next few years, and people who have been underwater on their mortgage will get out from that, and build some equity.”

The latest rise in the Case-Shiller index was the second straight quarter of year-over-year improvement, while the monthly annual reading has climbed for four months in a row, with six straight month-over-month increases.

“With six months of consistently rising home prices, it is safe to say that we are now in the midst of a recovery in the housing market,” said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

The increases are widespread, with only two of the 20 cities tracked by index — Chicago and New York — showing modest price declines from a year earlier. The biggest rise was in Phoenix, one of the cities hardest hit when the housing bubble burst. Prices there in September were 20.4% higher than a year ago.

“Home price gains are becoming more widespread across cities, and some of the largest rebounds have been in areas that were most heavily affected during the initial housing slump,” said Cooper Howes, an economist with Barclays Capital. “We expect this trend to persist into next year as part of a broad-based housing recovery that includes starts, sales and prices”

Home prices are now back to where they were in early 2003, before the housing bubble inflated over the next three years before bursting. Even with the recent gain, the national index is down 28.6% from the peak level reached the first quarter of 2006.

 By Chris Isidore @CNNMoney

Seattle-area home prices maintain upward march

Prices were up 4.8 percent from September 2011, setting yet another post-bubble record. All signs point to steady recovery in the housing market.

Seattle-area home prices kept climbing in September, according to the closely watched Standard & Poor’s / Case-Shiller home price index.

Prices were up 4.8 percent from September 2011, setting yet another post-bubble record. August’s 3.4 percent year-over-year gain had been the previous high.

Seattle-area prices now have increased year-over-year for five straight months, according to Case-Shiller.

The numbers are for the Seattle metropolitan area — King, Snohomish and Pierce counties. The September statistics, the most recent available, were released Tuesday.

Seattle prices also increased 0.3 percent between August and September, reversing a 0.1 percent decline from July to August.

Nationally, Case-Shiller’s 20-city composite index was up 0.3 percent month-over-month and 3 percent year-over-year. Eighteen of the 20 metropolitan areas Case-Shiller tracks saw prices rise from September 2011 levels, with only Chicago and New York experiencing declines.

In Phoenix, prices jumped 20.4 percent over the 12-month stretch to lead all cities; prices in Atlanta showed a modest 0.1 percent increase, ending 26 straight consecutive year-over-year declines.

Prices increased in 13 cities between August and September, led by 1.4 percent increases in Las Vegas and San Diego.

“It is safe to say that we are now in the midst of a recovery in the housing market,” said David Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

When seasonal factors are taken into account, September’s increase from August is even more impressive, he added.

The Seattle area’s Case-Shiller score for September was 142.09, meaning prices were 42.09 percent higher than in January 2000. The metropolitan area’s high, 192.30, came in July 2007.

The region’s lowest score since the real-estate bubble burst, 128.99, occurred in February. Since then prices have risen a little more than 10 percent.

But, despite those gains, Seattle’s September Case-Shiller score still is lower than it was from March 2005 to October 2010 — a stretch of more than five years.

Two experts offered differing forecasts on what’s immediately ahead for housing nationally.

“We will see the market continue to strengthen as inventory available for sale continues to decline,” said Richard Green, director of the University of Southern California’s Lusk Center for Real Estate.

“Additionally, Case-Shiller is a month behind, so these results do not reflect the full strength of price movements that occurred in October and so far this month.”

But Stan Humphries, chief economist at Seattle-based online real-estate marketplace Zillow, said September probably is “the last hurrah” this year for month-over-month price gains.

He attributed that to seasonal factors and a projected increase in the number of bank-repossessed homes in the sales mix.

“This shouldn’t, however, be a cause for concern,” Humphries added, “as the Case-Shiller indices will still end the year up more than 3 percent from year-ago levels, clear evidence of a durable housing recovery.”

Steady increases in home prices have helped encourage more potential buyers to come off the sidelines and purchase homes. And more people may put their homes on the market as they gain confidence that they can sell at a good price.

Higher home prices can also make homeowners feel wealthier and more likely to spend more. Consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of the U.S. economy.

A big reason for the rebound is that the excess supply of homes that built up before the housing crisis has finally thinned out. The number of previously occupied homes available for sale has fallen to a 10-year low. The inventory of new homes is also near the lowest level since 1963.

At the same time, more people are looking to buy or rent a home after living with relatives or friends during and immediately after the Great Recession.

Those trends are also pushing up home sales and construction. Sales of previously occupied homes are near five-year highs, excluding temporary spikes in 2009 and 2010 when a homebuyer tax credit boosted purchases.

Builders, meanwhile, are more optimistic that the recovery will endure. A measure of their confidence rose to the highest level in six and a half years this month. And builders broke ground on new homes and apartments at the fastest pace in more than four years last month.

~Eric Pryne